SPC AC 080728
   
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0228 AM CDT TUE JUL 08 2008
   
   VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS NERN ND AND NRN MN...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   FAIRLY INTENSE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD INTO SRN
   SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. A 60-70 KT MID LEVEL
   JET WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM AND
   SPREAD FROM MT EWD INTO ND/NRN MN. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW PRESSURE
   SYSTEM WILL SHIFT EWD FROM MT INTO N CENTRAL ND BY LATE AFTERNOON
   ...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD FROM THE LOW INTO NERN WY...AND
   A WARM FRONT STRETCHING EWD ACROSS NRN MN.
   
   ...NERN ND AND NRN MN...
   MORNING CONVECTION IS LIKELY EARLY MORNING...DUE TO STRONG LOW LEVEL
   WARM ADVECTION ABOVE A RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER.
   HOWEVER...THIS CONVECTION SHOULD SHIFT NEWD INTO SRN ONTARIO/NRN
   GREAT LAKES AS WARM ADVECTION LIFTS NWD OUT OF THE AREA. BY
   AFTERNOON...AIR MASS IS FORECAST TO BECOME STRONGLY UNSTABLE AS
   STRENGTHING SLY WINDS ADVECT MID AND UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS NWD FROM
   THE CENTRAL PLAINS. INCREASINGLY WLY WIND ALOFT SHOULD WARM MID
   LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND STRENGTHEN CAPPING INVERSION. SINCE LARGE
   SCALE FORCING AND HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL...STORM
   DEVELOPMENT MAY BE RESTRICTED IN THE WARM SECTOR AND LIMITED TO NEAR
   THE SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT WHERE CONVERGENCE WILL BE THE
   STRONGEST DUE TO 25-35 KT LOW LEVEL JET. ONCE STORMS DEVELOP...THE
   DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND 60-70 KT MID LEVEL WINDS WILL PROVIDE
   FAVORABLE INSTABILITY/SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS WITH A POTENTIAL FOR HAIL
   AND DAMAGING WINDS.
   
   ...SERN VA/ERN NC WSWWD INTO AR/MS...
   REMNANT FRONT/LEE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM SERN VA/ERN NC 
   WSWWD INTO SRN AR/NRN MS ON THU. ALSO...SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD
   THROUGH NEW ENGLAND...WILL RESULT IN MID/HIGH LEVEL TROPICAL
   MOISTURE PLUME...CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE MID/UPPER MS
   VALLEY...TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS THIS REGION. CONVERGENCE ALONG WEAK
   SURFACE BOUNDARY AND MOIST ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...MOST NUMEROUS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
   EVENING HOURS. A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AND RELATIVELY
   STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS
   ...THOUGH WEAK SHEAR AND POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES INDICATE THE
   THREAT SHOULD BE ISOLATED AND SHORT LIVED.
   
   ..IMY.. 07/08/2008
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1100Z