SPC AC 271611
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1111 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2008
   
   VALID 271630Z - 281200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF NORTH CAROLINA...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE MID MO AND
   UPR MS VALLEYS...
   
   ...NC...
   THE REMAINS OF THE CIRCULATION OF T.D. FAY CONTINUES TO DRIFT NEWD
   AND IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER ERN KY. THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR IN THE ERN
   SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE T.D. SUPPORTING DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS AND A
   TORNADO THREAT THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS IS CURRENTLY SHIFTING NWD
   THRU THE CAROLINAS INTO VA.  WITH TIME THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE
   MOVING OVER AN INCREASINGLY MORE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELL
   POTENTIAL ACROSS VA WHERE A MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER IS IN PLACE.
   
   HOWEVER UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE
   FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES ACROSS MUCH OF NC AS AIR MASS
   CONTAINS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF
   VEERING SHEAR PROFILES ALONG AND S OF THE E/W BOUNDARY VICINITY OF
   NC/VA BORDER.
   
   ...UPPER MIDWEST/MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY/CENTRAL PLAINS...
   AS THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS NE INTO CANADA TODAY...
   ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE E/SE ACROSS MN/ERN SD AND NEB.
   ONGOING STORM CLUSTERS OVER MN/IA/ERN NEB ARE CURRENTLY WEAKENING AS
   EXPECTED.  ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT/INTENSIFICATION SEEMS LIKELY
   BY MID/LATE AFTN AND...ESPECIALLY...EARLY TONIGHT.  ALONG WITH
   MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR /WITH SBCAPE OF 1500-2500 J PER KG/...
   DEVELOPMENT WILL BE FOSTERED BY ARRIVAL OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT
   ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW IN THE NRN RCKYS.  APPROACH OF
   THIS DISTURBANCE MAY CAUSE COLD FRONT TO TEMPORARILY STALL ACROSS
   NRN NEB...SE SD...NW IA...AND SRN MN LATER TODAY...WITH THE FRONT
   SERVING AS THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR LOW LVL UPLIFT.
   
   ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ONCE AGAIN EXIST N AND W OF
   THE FRONT...AMPLE /35-40 KT/ DEEP WLY SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT NEAR THE
   BOUNDARY FOR SUPERCELLS AND OTHER FORMS OF SUSTAINED STORMS.
   OVERALL...SVR HAIL AND WIND WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.  THE STORMS
   LIKELY WILL GROW INTO ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
   THURSDAY.  THESE COULD BOTH FORWARD-PROPAGATE E INTO WI...AND
   BACK-BUILD/REGENERATE ACROSS SRN SD...SRN MN...NRN IA
   AND NE NEB.
   
   ...AZ...
   VERY MOIST AIR MASS REMAINS ACROSS SRN AZ WITH PW'S NEAR 2 INCHES IN
   THE SCENTRAL DESERTS.  20-25 KT NELY MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS NRN AND
   WRN AZ WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR PROPAGATION OF STORMS FROM THE HIGHER
   TERRAIN INTO THE DESERTS VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.  CLOUD
   COVER SERN THIRD OF AZ WILL SLOW THE HEATING PROCESS...HOWEVER
   STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM THE
   MOGOLLON RIM/BRADSHAW MTS SWD BY MID AFTERNOON.  WHILE HEAVY RAIN
   WILL BE LIKELY IN THE MOST VIGOROUS STORMS DEVELOPING
   SWWD...STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE MOST LIKELY IN THE SWRN DESERT
   VALLEYS WHERE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEPEST GIVEN THE
   AVAILABLE HEATING.
   
   ..HALES/LEVIT.. 08/27/2008
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z