SPC AC 160527
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1227 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2008
   
   VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   
   LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL NOT PROVE PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR
   SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE UPCOMING DAY1 PERIOD. 
   DOMINANT SFC ANTICYCLONE EAST OF THE ROCKIES WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT
   DEEP INTO THE GULF STATES AND OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST BY THE
   END OF THE PERIOD.
   
   LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND DIAGNOSTIC DATA SUGGEST TWO SMALL REGIONS
   OF POSSIBLE DEEP CONVECTION THURSDAY.  ONE REGION WILL OCCUR ALONG
   THE FRONT FROM SERN PA/MD INTO DE/NJ.  DEEPENING WLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
   BOUNDARY LAYER TO WARM SIGNIFICANTLY AHEAD OF WIND SHIFT WHICH WILL
   ALLOW SFC PARCELS TO REACH THEIR LFC.  WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK...MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN TOO
   SHALLOW FOR LIGHTNING.  EVEN SO...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
   WITHIN WEAKLY CONVERGENT ENVIRONMENT PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE.
   
   ANOTHER REGION OF POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR FROM LA
   INTO COASTAL PORTIONS OF TX.  A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG
   TRAILING PORTIONS OF THE FRONTAL ZONE BEGINNING EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
    CONVECTION WILL STEADILY PROGRESS OFFSHORE AS SFC FRONT SURGES
   SOUTH INTO THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO.
   
   ..DARROW/JEWELL.. 10/16/2008
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z