SPC AC 231945
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0145 PM CST MON NOV 23 2009
   
   VALID 232000Z - 241200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   --- UPDATES ---
   1630Z GEN TSTM LINES APPEAR TO REMAIN VALID BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL
   TRENDS AND LIMITED UPDATES IN PROGNOSTIC GUIDANCE SINCE.  AS
   SUCH...NO SUBSTANTIAL ADJUSTMENTS CAN BE JUSTIFIED ATTM...AND SVR
   POTENTIAL STILL APPEARS TOO SMALL/CONDITIONAL EVERYWHERE FOR AOA
   5-PERCENT PROBABILITIES.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 11/23/2009
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST MON NOV 23 2009/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   THE MAIN BELT OF THE WLYS WILL REMAIN OVER CANADA THIS PERIOD.  IN
   THE WEAKER SRN BRANCH...AMPLIFYING DISTURBANCE NOW OVER THE CNTRL
   RCKYS SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW THAT SHOULD REACH NE KS BY 12Z
   TUE.  DOWNSTREAM IN THE SAME BRANCH OF FLOW...IMPULSE NOW OVER W TN
   EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ENE INTO SW VA THIS EVE...AND OFF THE NJ CST
   EARLY TUE.  
   
   AT THE SFC...COLD FRONT/LOW ASSOCIATED WITH RCKYS SYSTEM WILL BECOME
   BETTER DEFINED THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SUBSTANTIAL ASCENT EXPECTED
   OVER THE CNTRL PLNS/LWR MO VLY LATER TONIGHT/EARLY TUE.  FARTHER
   E...WEAK FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CIRCULATION CENTERS WILL LINGER OFF
   THE NC CST TODAY.  THE CIRCULATIONS LIKELY WILL EVOLVE INTO SINGLE
   LOW OFF THE DELMARVA CST TONIGHT/EARLY TUE AS TN UPR SYSTEM
   APPROACHES REGION.
   
   ...CNTRL PLNS/LWR MO VLY...
   MID LVL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN LATE THIS AFTN THROUGH TONIGHT 
   OVER PARTS OF KS/NEB...DOWNSTREAM FROM AMPLIFYING CNTRL RCKYS
   TROUGH.  MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED.  BUT COMBINATION OF
   STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WITH STRONG DCVA/WAA MAY SUPPORT SCTD AREAS
   OF WEAK TSTMS TONIGHT/EARLY TUE FROM CNTRL KS INTO ERN NEB/NW MO AND
   WRN IA.
   
   ...ERN U.S...
   ISOLD TO WDLY SCTD TSTMS SHOULD PERSIST INVOF FRONT/LOW LVL
   CIRCULATION CENTERS E OF THE NC OUTER BANKS.  CURRENT CONDITIONS
   /WITH NELY SFC WINDS AT HATTERAS/...AND LOW AMPLITUDE NATURE OF
   UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE...SUGGEST THAT WARM SECTOR AIR MASS...AND ANY
   ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL FOR SFC-BASED STORMS/SVR WEATHER...WILL REMAIN
   OFFSHORE.  
    
   FARTHER S...WEAKENING FRONT STALLED OVER CNTRL FL...LOOSELY TIED TO
   SYSTEM OFF THE NC CST...MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LOW LVL CONVERGENCE
   TO SUPPORT A FEW DIURNAL TSTMS IN MOIST/MODESTLY UNSTABLE
   AIR...WHERE MLCAPE COULD REACH 1500 J/KG.
   
   ...SRN/CNTRL TX...
   SLY FLOW/MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL INCREASE OVER SRN/ERN TX
   TONIGHT/EARLY TUE AS AMPLIFYING SYSTEM REACHES THE CNTRL PLNS. 
   GRADUAL REMOVAL OF EXISTING CIN...AND UPLIFT ALONG SFC COLD
   FRONT...MAY SUPPORT ISOLD STORM DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE PERIOD.
   
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