SPC AC 081952
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0252 PM CDT TUE JUL 08 2008
   
   VALID 082000Z - 091200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTN/EVE FROM PARTS OF THE
   LWR MO/MID MS VLY INTO THE LWR GREAT LAKES REGION....
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE ACROSS
   PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES....
   
   ...LWR MISSOURI/MID MS VALLEYS INTO LWR GREAT LAKES...
   A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH WITHIN THE MAIN BELT OF POLAR WESTERLIES
   CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL CANADIAN
   PROVINCES AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. 
   THE BULK OF THE ONGOING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS GENERALLY JUST
   SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE...WHERE INTERACTIONS WITH ANOTHER DISTINCT
   BELT OF STRONGER FLOW ARE CONTRIBUTING TO FAVORABLE UPPER SUPPORT
   FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION.  THE SOUTHERN BELT...NOW EXTENDING
   ACROSS THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...AND
   LIFTING EAST NORTHEASTWARD...IS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER THAN THE
   NORTHERN BELT...BUT STILL CONTRIBUTING TO DEEP LAYER WESTERLY MEAN
   ENVIRONMENTAL WIND FIELDS UP TO AROUND 30 KTS.  AND...DOWNWARD
   TRANSFER OF THIS MOMENTUM TO THE SURFACE WILL ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR
   STRONG GUSTY WINDS APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS IN
   DEVELOPING STORM CLUSTERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  WHILE THE BOUNDARY
   LAYER IS SEASONABLY MOIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...ONSET OF
   DIURNAL COOLING IN THE WAKE OF RELATIVELY MODEST /FOR THE SEASON/
   DAYTIME HEATING...PROBABLY WILL RESULT IN RAPID DIMINISHING TRENDS
   DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
   
   ...MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES...
   A LINGERING UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE PROCESS OF SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO
   AND OFF MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS.  THE MID-LEVEL COLD CORE OF THIS
   SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE THE FOCUS FOR VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL/GUSTY WINDS...WHICH SHOULD
   SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA/NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL
   AREAS BETWEEN NOW AND 08/23Z-09/00Z.
   
   THOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STABILIZING IN THE WAKE OF THE
   UPPER TROUGH...STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH HEATING
   TO THE LEE OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL APPALACHIANS MAY ALSO PROVIDE A
   FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS 
   DEVELOPING EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
   EVENING.
   
   **FOR MORE SPECIFIC INFORMATION CONCERNING ONGOING OR IMMINENT
   CONVECTIVE THREATS...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST SPC MESOSCALE
   DISCUSSIONS.
   
   ..KERR.. 07/08/2008
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z