Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook Issued on Nov 23, 2009
Updated: Mon Nov 23 09:47:03 UTC 2009
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook Graphics Issued on Nov 23, 2009
D4Thu, Nov 26, 2009 - Fri, Nov 27, 2009 D7Sun, Nov 29, 2009 - Mon, Nov 30, 2009
D5Fri, Nov 27, 2009 - Sat, Nov 28, 2009 D8Mon, Nov 30, 2009 - Tue, Dec 01, 2009
D6Sat, Nov 28, 2009 - Sun, Nov 29, 2009 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)

Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.

PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).


 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 230946
   SPC AC 230946
   
   DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0346 AM CST MON NOV 23 2009
   
   VALID 261200Z - 011200Z
   
   ...DISCUSSION...
   PROGRESSIVE AND HIGH-AMPLITUDE FLOW REGIME WILL DOMINANT THE MEDIUM
   RANGE.  STRONG UPR TROUGH THAT EVOLVES OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE
   COUNTRY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL QUICKLY DEPART THE ERN SEABOARD
   BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.  BUILDING SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SEND A
   CDFNT WELL S INTO THE SRN GULF OF MEXICO LATE IN THE WEEK.  NEXT
   SYSTEM IS FCST TO QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE NRN ROCKIES LATE FRIDAY AND
   SATURDAY.  SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO INCREASE OVER THE
   WEEKEND...PRIMARILY IN HOW MUCH SRN STREAM ENERGY CAN BECOME
   DETACHED FROM THE NRN STREAM UPR LOW.  FAMILY OF ECMWF DETERMINISTIC
   AND MEANS SUGGEST A SLOWER AND LESS AMPLIFIED SOLUTION...WHICH HAS
   BEEN MORE CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST SVRL RUNS.  IT IS REASONABLE TO
   EXPECT AN INCREASE IN THE RETURN FLOW REGIME AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
   OVER THE WEEKEND WITH AN INCREASE IN TSTM THREATS OVER PARTS OF THE
   SRN PLNS EWD ACROSS THE GULF CSTL REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.  GULF
   MOISTURE WILL MOST LIKELY BE OF ONLY MODEST QUALITY AND GIVEN
   VARIABILITY IN MODELS IN HANDLING OF THE WEEKEND TROUGH...FCST
   CONFIDENCE IN A SVR EPISODE IS NOT HIGH.
   
   ..RACY.. 11/23/2009

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

To retrieve previous Day 4-8 convective outlooks, enter the date YYYYMMDD (e.g., 20050310 for March 10, 2005.)
Data available since March 8, 2005.
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: November 23, 2009
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities