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Day 4-8 Convective Outlook Issued on Jul 8, 2008
Updated: Tue Jul 8 08:23:03 UTC 2008
Note:
A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period
indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe
thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
| D4 | Fri, Jul 11, 2008 - Sat, Jul 12, 2008 |
D7 | Mon, Jul 14, 2008 - Tue, Jul 15, 2008 |
| D5 | Sat, Jul 12, 2008 - Sun, Jul 13, 2008 |
D8 | Tue, Jul 15, 2008 - Wed, Jul 16, 2008 |
| D6 | Sun, Jul 13, 2008 - Mon, Jul 14, 2008 |
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) |
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 080822
SPC AC 080822
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0322 AM CDT TUE JUL 08 2008
VALID 111200Z - 161200Z
...FRI/DAY 4...
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN AMPLIFYING AN INTENSE SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA SEWD INTO ND/MN ON FRI/DAY 4. LARGE SCALE
FORCING AND COLD FRONT MOVING INTO A STRONGLY UNSTABLE/SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE UPPER MS VALLEY.
...SAT/DAY 5...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES...WITH
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ROUGHLY STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES SWWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON. DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR AND AT LEAST MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT SOME SEVERE
STORMS SAT. HOWEVER...MODEL VARIANCE ON LOCATION OF FRONT/SURFACE
CONVERGENCE AND WEAKER SHEAR THAN IN THE UPPER MS VALLEY ON FRI
PRECLUDES A 30% SEVERE THREAT AREA.
...SUN/DAY 6- TUE/DAY 8...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH NEW ENGLAND WITH A POTENTIAL FOR
STRONGER STORMS THIS REGION ON SUN/DAY 6. THE FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF THE COUNTRY MON/TUE...WITH NO
IDENTIFIABLE ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT AREAS ATTM.
..IMY.. 07/08/2008
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
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