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Day 4-8 Convective Outlook Issued on Nov 23, 2009
Updated: Mon Nov 23 09:47:03 UTC 2009
| D4 | Thu, Nov 26, 2009 - Fri, Nov 27, 2009 |
D7 | Sun, Nov 29, 2009 - Mon, Nov 30, 2009 |
| D5 | Fri, Nov 27, 2009 - Sat, Nov 28, 2009 |
D8 | Mon, Nov 30, 2009 - Tue, Dec 01, 2009 |
| D6 | Sat, Nov 28, 2009 - Sun, Nov 29, 2009 |
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) |
Note: A severe weather
area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability
for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be
possible based on some model scenarios.
However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt
due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions,
2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or
3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of
organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire
period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe
storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 230946
SPC AC 230946
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0346 AM CST MON NOV 23 2009
VALID 261200Z - 011200Z
...DISCUSSION...
PROGRESSIVE AND HIGH-AMPLITUDE FLOW REGIME WILL DOMINANT THE MEDIUM
RANGE. STRONG UPR TROUGH THAT EVOLVES OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL QUICKLY DEPART THE ERN SEABOARD
BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. BUILDING SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SEND A
CDFNT WELL S INTO THE SRN GULF OF MEXICO LATE IN THE WEEK. NEXT
SYSTEM IS FCST TO QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE NRN ROCKIES LATE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO INCREASE OVER THE
WEEKEND...PRIMARILY IN HOW MUCH SRN STREAM ENERGY CAN BECOME
DETACHED FROM THE NRN STREAM UPR LOW. FAMILY OF ECMWF DETERMINISTIC
AND MEANS SUGGEST A SLOWER AND LESS AMPLIFIED SOLUTION...WHICH HAS
BEEN MORE CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST SVRL RUNS. IT IS REASONABLE TO
EXPECT AN INCREASE IN THE RETURN FLOW REGIME AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH AN INCREASE IN TSTM THREATS OVER PARTS OF THE
SRN PLNS EWD ACROSS THE GULF CSTL REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. GULF
MOISTURE WILL MOST LIKELY BE OF ONLY MODEST QUALITY AND GIVEN
VARIABILITY IN MODELS IN HANDLING OF THE WEEKEND TROUGH...FCST
CONFIDENCE IN A SVR EPISODE IS NOT HIGH.
..RACY.. 11/23/2009
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
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