SPC MCD 061101
MOZ000-KSZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-061300-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0435
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0601 AM CDT THU APR 06 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NEB...NERN KS...NWRN MO
CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE
VALID 061101Z - 061300Z
AFTER COLLABORATION WITH THE TOP/OAX/EAX WEATHER FORECAST OFFICES...
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IS EXPECTED TO UPGRADE SERN NEB...NERN
KS AND NWRN MO TO A CATEGORICAL HIGH RISK AT 13Z.
H5 12-HR HEIGHT FALLS OF 210 METERS WILL SPREAD ENEWD ACROSS THE
CNTRL PLAINS THIS AFTN. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTN
ALONG THE DRYLINE/SFC LOW FROM SCNTRL NEB INTO CNTRL KS AS
INHIBITION IS ERODED. STORMS SHOULD QUICKLY ORGANIZE INTO
SUPERCELLS GIVEN STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES /H5 FLOW OF 105 KTS
OVER OKLA...WITH AOA 60 KTS INTO ERN KS/.
THE 2-8KM SHEAR VECTORS REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY NORMAL TO THE INITIATING
BOUNDARY TO SUPPORT DISCRETE CELLS...THOUGH ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO
EVOLVE INTO A MIXED MODE OF LEWPS/BOWS WITH TIME.
NONETHELESS...BACKED SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW E/NE OF THE SFC LOW/WARM
FRONT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES...SOME STRONG...AS THE STORMS
MOVE ENEWD AT 30-40 KTS ACROSS NERN KS...SERN NEB AND NWRN MO. VERY
LARGE HAIL CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED GIVEN STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND 2000-2500 J/KG MLCAPE.
..RACY/EVANS.. 04/06/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...
38339578 39589716 40779702 40919601 40319468 39399408
38529421 38249500
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 061603
SPC MCD 061603
ARZ000-MOZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-061800-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0436
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1103 AM CDT THU APR 06 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK/SW MO/WRN AR/ERN TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
VALID 061603Z - 061800Z
...POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD SEVERE STORMS THROUGH EARLY AFTN FROM ECNTRL
OK SWD TO PARTS OF ERN TX...AND EWD INTO AR...
ELEVATED TSTMS CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY ACROSS ECNTRL OK...WITH LATEST
TULSA OK RADAR IMAGERY SUGGESTING INTENSE MID LEVEL CORES. LATEST WV
IMAGERY INDICATES AN IMPULSE NOW MOVING ACROSS CNTRL KS/OK...AND
THIS IS LIKELY AGITATING THE STORMS. IN ADDITION...LARGE SCALE
ASCENT IS BEING AUGMENTED BY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. 12Z SOUNDING FROM
NORMAN OK SHOWED AROUND 1700 J/KG MUCAPE...WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER
CAPE EVIDENT ON THE 12Z SPRINGFIELD MO SOUNDING. SPECIAL 15Z
SOUNDING FROM SPRINGFIELD SUGGESTS STORMS ARE ROOTED NEAR 700MB.
STORMS ARE FORMING WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR
/AROUND 40 KT/ AND MODERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY. STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING SWD...WITH THE MAIN THREAT FROM
LARGE HAIL.
..TAYLOR.. 04/06/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...HGX...ICT...FWD...OUN...
33039395 30769505 30649667 33689707 36159641 37239475
37299338 36099266 33919325
NNNNZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 061619
SPC MCD 061619
INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-061715-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0437
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1119 AM CDT THU APR 06 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN IA/ERN MO/MUCH OF CENTRAL-SRN IL/FAR SWRN
IND/FAR WRN KY
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
VALID 061619Z - 061715Z
ELEVATED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP INTO THE AFTERNOON FROM
SERN IA SEWD THROUGH ERN MO/MUCH OF CENTRAL-SRN IL INTO FAR SWRN IND
AND FAR WRN KY.
LATE MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW LOCATED
OVER ERN NEB...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SEWD THROUGH SWRN IA/NRN
TO ERN MO AROUND STL..AND THEN EWD ACROSS SRN IL INTO FAR SRN IND.
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDED SWD FROM CENTRAL MO /BOONE COUNTY/ INTO
NRN AR. LARGE SCALE ASCENT DOWNSTREAM OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOCATED
OVER CENTRAL KS/OK WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL ELEVATED STORMS TO THE
NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT AND EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...AS THIS MID
LEVEL IMPULSE TRACKS NEWD TOWARD THE LOWER MO/MID MS VALLEYS TODAY.
SPECIAL 15Z SOUNDING AT SGF CONTINUED TO INDICATE A STEEP LAPSE RATE
ENVIRONMENT OVER MO...BUT THE AIR MASS REMAINS CAPPED. 15Z RUC
SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA SUGGEST STORMS ARE ROOTED
AROUND 850 MB WITH CLOUD LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ELEVATED ROTATING
STORMS. WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF STRONGER
CORES. HOWEVER...STEEP LAPSE RATES INDICATED A THREAT FOR ISOLATED
HAIL...LOCALLY EXCEEDING SEVERE LEVELS AT TIMES.
..PETERS.. 04/06/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...
40639240 41659279 41989165 41799039 40608889 39848761
38408698 36838743 36628864 36728976 37889107 39269164
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 061712
SPC MCD 061712
NEZ000-KSZ000-061915-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0438
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1212 PM CDT THU APR 06 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL THROUGH ERN NEB THROUGH MUCH OF CNTRL KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
VALID 061712Z - 061915Z
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL NEB
SWD THROUGH CNTRL KS BETWEEN 19 AND 21Z. ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES
APPEAR LIKELY INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND LINE SEGMENTS. THREATS WILL
INCLUDE LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS
OF THESE AREAS BY 18Z.
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS FROM A LOW IN E CNTRL
NEB SWWD THROUGH W CNTRL KS THEN SWD AS A DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT
THROUGH WRN OK AND THE ERN PORTION OF WRN TX. WV IMAGERY SHOWS A
LOBE OF VORTICITY AND ACCOMPANYING UPPER JET ADVANCING ENEWD THROUGH
WRN KS AND WRN NEB. ASCENT AND HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS OVER N CNTRL KS
THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS ALREADY SHOWS PRESSURE FALLS
ACROSS CNTRL THROUGH SWRN KS. AS THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS...THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OVER NEB SHOULD BECOME MORE ELY WITH SOME WWD
RETREAT OF THE FRONT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. STRONG SURFACE
HEATING...ASCENT...AND EWD ADVANCE COLDER AIR ALOFT AND STEEPER
LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE FROM CNTRL
THROUGH ERN NEB SWD THROUGH CNTRL KS WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000
J/KG LIKELY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOPING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WRN AND CNTRL KS ARE PROBABLY INDICATIVE OF THE LEADING
EDGE OF ASCENT SPREADING EWD. AS THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO
DESTABILIZE AND HEIGHT FALLS/FORCING FOR ASCENT SPREAD EWD...STORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF FRONT/DRYLINE FROM CNTRL NEB SWD
THROUGH CNTRL KS AND SUBSEQUENTLY SPREAD NEWD. DEEP LAYER AND LOW
LEVEL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE UPPER JET ADVANCES EWD
AND AS SECONDARY BRANCH OF THE LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES ACROSS
KS/ERN NEB IN RESPONSE TO CYCLOGENESIS.
..DIAL.. 04/06/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...
41229639 39119663 37159726 37339891 39319945 40499975
42000019 42469914 42259744
NNNNZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 061751
SPC MCD 061751
OKZ000-061945-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0439
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1251 PM CDT THU APR 06 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL THROUGH PARTS OF NERN OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
VALID 061751Z - 061945Z
N CNTRL THROUGH CNTRL OK ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION BETWEEN 18Z AND 19Z. PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE
SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. THIS AREA IS
BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE TORNADO WATCH.
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS FROM CNTRL KS SSWWD
THROUGH WRN OK. A DRYLINE EXTENDS FROM NWRN TX NWD THROUGH W CNTRL
OK AND INTERSECTS THE FRONT IN S CNTRL KS. STRONG SURFACE HEATING
AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE PROMOTING DESTABILIZATION WITHIN THE WARM
SECTOR WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 60S. LATEST OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS ALREADY SHOW AN AXIS OF MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1500 TO 2000
J/KG ACROSS W CNTRL OK IN ADVANCE OF THE DRYLINE. PRESSURE FALLS
INDICATIVE OF STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH ENEWD
ADVANCING MID LEVEL JET ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS WRN AND W CNTRL KS.
THIS ZONE OF FALLS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EWD WITH SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS EXPECTED ACROSS CNTRL KS NEXT FEW HOURS. AS THE LOW
DEEPENS...CONVERGENCE WILL INCREASE AND THE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT WILL
SHARPEN. THE INCREASING CONVERGENCE AND FORCING FOR ASCENT MAY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON INTO PARTS OF
CNTRL OK AS THE CAP WEAKENS. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS BOUNDARY
LAYER CUMULUS INCREASING OVER W CNTRL OK JUST W OF OKC.
STRENGTHENING LOW TO MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL
SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.
..DIAL.. 04/06/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...
35099786 35689789 36379788 36949788 36849577 35919599
35119696
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 061815
SPC MCD 061815
TXZ000-OKZ000-061945-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0440
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0115 PM CDT THU APR 06 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...SW OK THROUGH SW TX
CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS
VALID 061815Z - 061945Z
...DRYLINE BEING MONITORED FOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS ACROSS SW OK
THROUGH TX...
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BLOWING DUST WEST OF THE
DRYLINE AND BOUNDARY LAYER CUMULUS EAST. EARLY THIS AFTN...THE
DRYLINE EXTENDS FROM JUST EAST OF HBR/FDR/SNK/FST. UPPER/MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION IS SEEN ON WV LOOPS NOW APPROACHING TX PANHANDLE.
ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL BE FOCUSED NORTH OF
THE AREA...STRONG SFC HEATING COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL ASCENT FOCUSED
ON THE DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT MAY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE STORMS THIS
AFTN. STEEP LAPSE RATES...COMBINED WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE WARM SECTOR WILL FAVOR STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS...IF AND WHEN DEVELOPMENT OCCURS.
..TAYLOR.. 04/06/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...
34709755 32949716 31199785 30259964 30960080 31370067
32439994 32849982 34149889 34429876 34869833
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 061902
SPC MCD 061902
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-062100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0441
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0202 PM CDT THU APR 06 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...SD/WRN MN
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
VALID 061902Z - 062100Z
...STRONG AND SEVERE TSTMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH
DAKOTA NORTH OF WARM FRONT WITH PRIMARILY A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL...
MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AT 850 MB REVEALS BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS
NRN NEB/SRN SD...AND THIS IS SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTN. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA...SO
TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTN. LATEST SFC
OBSERVATIONAL ANALYSIS SHOWS MUCAPE AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG. STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL FAVOR STRONG UPDRAFTS...CAPABLE OF LARGE
HAIL. IN ADDITION...TRAINING CELLS WILL ALSO POSE A HEAVY RAIN
THREAT AS WELL. STORMS MAY HAVE A TENDENCY TO BUILD EWD INTO WRN
PORTIONS OF MN LATER THIS AFTN DUE TO INCREASING WAA.
..TAYLOR.. 04/06/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...UNR...
43819657 43770137 44310263 45640292 46249941 45899568
44269571
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 062024
SPC MCD 062024
IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-062230-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0442
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0324 PM CDT THU APR 06 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL THROUGH ERN KS...ERN NEB THROUGH WRN IA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 154...
VALID 062024Z - 062230Z
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TOWARD
EVENING FROM ERN KS INTO ERN NEB. THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE.
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND IS ALSO POSSIBLE. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP INTO NERN NEB AND WRN IA AFTER 22Z. A WW MAY BE NEEDED FOR
THIS AREA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN VICINITY OF THE PACIFIC
FRONT ACROSS CNTRL KS AS ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG MID LEVEL
JET OVERTAKES THE MOIST AXIS. PRESSURE FALLS HAVE INCREASED OVER
CNTRL KS IN RESPONSE TO AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE...AND LEE CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO UNDERWAY OVER N CNTRL
KS. PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES IN THE
SHORT TERM HAS BEEN THE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND
RELATIVELY HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER-TEMPERATURE DEWPOINT SPREADS.
HOWEVER...THE TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN FROM ERN KS
INTO SERN NEB...AND THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
SHEAR WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. SOME DECREASE IN
TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS MAY ALSO OCCUR TOWARD EVENING AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO COOL.
ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP NEWD THROUGH ERN AND NERN NEB AS
WELL AS WRN IA TOWARD EVENING AS FORCING FOR ASCENT SPREADS NEWD.
CONVECTIVE MODE WILL INCLUDE SUPERCELLS AS WELL AS LINES WITH LARGE
HAIL...ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND POSSIBLE.
..DIAL.. 04/06/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...LBF...
41939463 41409479 41239539 41629610 41739734 41809878
42329901 42829747 42609539
NNNNZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 062029
SPC MCD 062029
ARZ000-MOZ000-062200-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0443
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0329 PM CDT THU APR 06 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL MO/NCNTRL AR
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 153...
VALID 062029Z - 062200Z
THE MAIN THREAT ACROSS WW 153 IS NOW EAST OF A RUE/BPK LINE.
ELEVATED TSTMS HAVE MOVED INTO SCNTRL MO AND NCNTRL AR...WITH THE
MOST INTENSE STORM NOW PASSING SE OF FLP. POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
SEVERE WEATHER WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS...AS STORMS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS NE OK AHEAD OF EWD MOVING SFC
BOUNDARY...WHICH EXTENDS ACROSS CNTRL OK. ENVIRONMENT ACROSS NW
AR/SW MO HAS BEEN TEMPORARILY STABILIZED DUE TO ELEVATED STORMS
WHICH OCCURRED EARLIER AND DESTABILIZATION WILL NEED TO OCCUR.
SPECIAL 20Z SOUNDING FROM SPRINGFIELD SHOWS MID LEVEL WARMING HAS
OCCURRED ROUGHLY IN THE 600-700MB LAYER. MLCAPE VALUES ARE 1500-2000
J/KG WITHIN INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS CNTRL OK. LAPSE RATES REMAIN
STEEP...AND WIND PROFILES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS.
TO EXPRESS THIS INCREASING SEVERE THREAT ACROSS NE OK/NW AR...THE
HIGH RISK HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO THIS AREA AS OF 20Z.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF WW 153 HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED
TSTMS IS DIMINISHING...AND THE WATCH WILL LIKELY EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED
AT 23Z. A NEW WATCH WILL BE NEEDED WITHIN A FEW HOURS...POSSIBLY
INCLUDING ERN PORTIONS OF TORNADO WATCH 155 AND POINTS FARTHER EAST.
..TAYLOR.. 04/06/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...SGF...
35479151 35079341 35809321 37319268 37639151 37169144
35999136
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 062121
SPC MCD 062121
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-062245-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0444
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0421 PM CDT THU APR 06 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK/WRN AR
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 155...
VALID 062121Z - 062245Z
...WATCH WILL NEED TO BE ISSUED SHORTLY FOR PORTIONS OF WRN AND NRN
AR...
TSTMS DEVELOPING MOVING INTO SEBASTIAN CO ARE SFC BASED...AND WILL
HAVE AN INCREASING THREAT FOR ROTATING CELLS/TORNADOES. THUS...A
TORNADO WATCH WILL NEED TO BE CONSIDERED FOR AR AND MO SOON.
FARTHER WEST...TORNADO HAS BEEN REPORTED WITH SUPERCELL ACROSS OSAGE
CO AND VAD WIND DATA FROM TULSA CONTINUES TO BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL.
..TAYLOR.. 04/06/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...ICT...OUN...
34149385 34419573 35529671 36869665 37109581 37019491
36399162 34609218
NNNNZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 062153
SPC MCD 062153
MOZ000-IAZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-062330-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0445
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0453 PM CDT THU APR 06 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN KS INTO WRN AND CNTRL MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
VALID 062153Z - 062330Z
POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD E OF WW 154 BY 23Z AND A NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL
BE REQUIRED.
AS OF 21Z...MESOANALYSIS INDICATED A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
OVER S-CNTRL NEB WITH ATTENDANT DRYLINE SURGING ENEWD THROUGH
S-CNTRL INTO ERN KS. INTENSE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD
OF MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 90-100 KT JET STREAK ARE
CONTRIBUTING INCREASING STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FROM MARION
COUNTY KS SEWD INTO OSAGE COUNTY OK.
STEEP LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH DIABATIC HEATING AND MODEST
BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS LATE THIS AFTERNOON E OF ONGOING STORMS WITH MLCAPES OF
1000-2000 J/KG. REGIONAL PROFILERS AND VWPS INDICATE DESCENDING MID
AND HIGH-LEVEL JET ACROSS INSTABILITY AXIS WITH 55-65 KTS OF
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. MOREOVER...TRENDS IN NEODESHA KS PROFILER SHOW
THAT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR HAS STEADILY INCREASED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING EWD INTO WRN AND CNTRL MO...SUGGESTING A THREAT FOR
LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF A COUPLE STRONG TORNADOES.
..MEAD.. 04/06/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...DMX...EAX...TSA...OAX...TOP...ICT...
39979556 40569467 40589317 39699257 37519211 36699275
36509328 36539433 36669483
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 070007
SPC MCD 070007
TXZ000-OKZ000-070130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0446
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0707 PM CDT THU APR 06 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL THROUGH SCNTRL TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 156...
VALID 070007Z - 070130Z
LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS PACIFIC COLD FRONT/DRYLINE EXTENDING FROM
LUD/SEP/DRT. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...SVR TSTM HAS DEVELOPED OVER
BURNET COUNTY...WITH A STRONG MID LEVEL CORE AND WITHIN A STRONGLY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS FIELD
EXTENDING SWD TO DRT. MODERATE INSTABILITY AXIS SHOWS MLCAPE RANGING
FROM 1500-2000 J/KG WITHIN AIRMASS WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE STILL IN THE
60S. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS STRONGEST FORCING IS FOCUSED
FARTHER NORTH...SO ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLD.
HOWEVER...ANY SUSTAINED STORMS THAT FORM WILL LIKELY BECOME SEVERE
WITH THE MAIN THREAT OF LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS.
..TAYLOR.. 04/07/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...
30199683 30379848 31379861 33979708 33789457 30709622
NNNNZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 070012
SPC MCD 070012
IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-070115-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0447
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0712 PM CDT THU APR 06 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...WRN IA / NWRN MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
VALID 070012Z - 070115Z
THREAT OF LARGE HAIL...LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A FEW
TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP E OF WW 154 PRIOR 01-02Z. A NEW WW
WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED.
AS OF 2355Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED WIDESPREAD TSTMS
ONGOING OVER PORTIONS OF ERN NEB...TO THE E OF OCCLUDING SURFACE LOW
OVER CNTRL NEB. WITHIN THIS BROADER CONVECTIVE SHIELD...A MESOSCALE
CIRCULATION WAS OBSERVED LIFTING NEWD THROUGH
SEWARD...LANCASTER...SALINE...JEFFERSON AND GAGE COUNTIES. OMA AND
TOP RADAR DATA INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF SMALLER-SCALE SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES WITHIN N-S BAND ALONG ERN EDGE OF THIS CIRCULATION AS FAR
S AS NEMAHA AND POTTAWATOMIE COUNTIES IN NERN KS.
PRESENCE OF DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT IN DIFLUENT REGION OF
UPPER SYNOPTIC SYSTEM SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT NEWD INTO
WRN IA/NWRN MO THROUGH THE EVENING. DESPITE LARGELY MERIDIONAL MID
AND HIGH-LEVEL WIND FIELDS...BACKED SURFACE WINDS E/SE OF THE
SURFACE LOW ARE RESULTING IN VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS WITH AN ANTICIPATED CONTINUING THREAT OF LARGE
HAIL...LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES.
..MEAD.. 04/07/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...
42119626 42249580 42129513 41199411 39519384 39119413
38949469 39219512
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 070053
SPC MCD 070053
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-070230-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0448
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0753 PM CDT THU APR 06 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 155...157...
VALID 070053Z - 070230Z
...HIGH POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL WITH DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS NOW MOVING ACROSS ERN OK....
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL SUPERCELL TSTMS EXTENDING FROM
FAR SE KS TO SE OK. ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR
STORM ROTATION...WITH 0-1 SRH NEAR 400 M2/S2. HASKELL OK PROFILER
AND VAD DATA FROM BOTH TULSA AND FORT SMITH SHOW VERY IMPRESSIVE
DIRECTION/SPEED SHEAR WITH 50 KT OBSERVED NEAR 1 KM. LAMONT AND
PURCELL PROFILER DATA ALSO SHOW 100KT DOWN TO 3KM...INDICATING THE
EXTREMELY STRONG WINDS...ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING JET STREAK.
SEVERAL OF THESE STORMS HAVE ALREADY PRODUCED BRIEF
TORNADOES...INCLUDING A RECENT REPORT OF A TORNADO WEST OF EUFAULA
DAM IN HASKELL CO JUST BEFORE 730PM. STORM SIGNATURES DO INDICATE
THAT STORMS ARE FEELING THE EFFECTS OF THE EXTREME SHEAR.
HOWEVER...THE STORMS /BY MAINTAINING SOME SPACE BETWEEN CELLS/ ARE
NOT DESTRUCTIVELY INTERFERING...WHICH DOES INCREASE THE POTENTIAL
FOR TORNADOES. BEST POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE ACROSS SE OK INTO WCNTRL
AR. AIRMASS IS SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE ACROSS NW AR...BUT MOISTURE IS
RAPIDLY RETURNING IN A SLIGHTLY ELEVATED FASHION. STRENGTH OF SHEAR
SUGGESTS SEVERE THREAT WILL SPREAD INTO PORTIONS OF WW 157 /INTO NRN
AND WRN AR/ THROUGH LATER THIS EVENING.
..TAYLOR.. 04/07/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...
33789476 33839619 35609549 36979517 36929403 35429388
34569387
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 070129
SPC MCD 070129
KSZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-070300-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0449
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0829 PM CDT THU APR 06 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL AND ERN NEB / ERN KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 154...158...
VALID 070129Z - 070300Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT E OF WW 154 BY
02Z...THEREFORE THIS WW WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT THAT TIME.
ELSEWHERE...OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE
DIMINISHING ACROSS N-CNTRL AND NERN NEB...SUGGESTING WW 158 COULD
POSSIBLY BE CANCELLED EARLY.
AS OF 0120Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A LINE OF STRONG TO
POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTMS FROM BURT COUNTY NEB SWD ALONG THE MO RIVER
INTO BROWN AND JACKSON COUNTIES IN NERN KS. DESPITE LARGELY
MERIDIONAL INDIVIDUAL CELL MOTIONS...OVERALL LINE MOVEMENT IS MORE
EWD WHICH SHOULD TAKE THIS DEVELOPMENT INTO WW 160 BY 02Z. FARTHER
TO THE N...WIDESPREAD CONVECTION HAS RESULTED IN CONSIDERABLE
STABILIZATION OF AIR MASS WITH MOST VIGOROUS DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING
ALONG NRN FRINGE OF PRECIPITATION SHIELD FROM GREGORY AND CHARLES
MIX COUNTIES EWD TO YANKTON COUNTY IN SD. THESE STRONGER STORMS
WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF PRIMARILY MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.
LITTLE ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION IS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT OWING TO
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND AFOREMENTIONED WIDESPREAD COLD POOL
DEVELOPMENT. THEREFORE...SHOULD CURRENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS
CONTINUE...PORTIONS OF WW 158 COULD BE CANCELLED EARLY /SPECIFICALLY
FROM SW TO NE/.
..MEAD.. 04/07/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...UNR...
37049626 43110057 43019659 40039540 37049503
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 070227
SPC MCD 070227
TXZ000-OKZ000-070330-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0450
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0927 PM CDT THU APR 06 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN INTO CNTRL TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 156...
VALID 070227Z - 070330Z
SOME THREAT OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY PERSIST FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL TX. AN ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.
AS OF 02Z...MESOANALYSIS INDICATED PACIFIC COLD FRONT FROM E OF ADM
SWD THROUGH THE METROPLEX TO W OF TPL. STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS WHICH
HAVE PERSISTED FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS FROM NEAR ACT TO AUS
HAVE WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR...PRESUMABLY
OWING TO STRENGTHENING CAP ACROSS MODERATELY UNSTABLE...PRE-FRONTAL
AIRMASS.
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE SRN FRINGE OF
LARGE-SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH CNTRL PLAINS UPPER LOW IS
RAPIDLY SHIFTING NE OF THE REGION. THUS...DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF
THE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG SHEAR PROFILES...IT APPEARS THAT
A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH.
..MEAD.. 04/07/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN...EWX...
34049586 33969479 33409445 30869560 30239713 30259778
30949808 33999639
NNNNZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 070251
SPC MCD 070251
MOZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-070445-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0451
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0951 PM CDT THU APR 06 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MO/WRN IA...SWRN MN AND SERN SD
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 160...
VALID 070251Z - 070445Z
THREAT FOR TORNADOES APPEARS TO HAVE DIMINISHED AS BOUNDARY LAYER
CONTINUES TO DECOUPLE. HOWEVER...THREAT FOR SVR HAIL WILL STILL
EXIST FOR SEVERAL MORE HRS OVER MUCH OF WW 160.
REDEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SVR STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG WRN
PORTIONS OF WW 160 /WRN IA/ OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS...AS MAIN MID
LEVEL FORCING INTERACTS WITH REMAINING MODERATE INSTABILITY /MUCAPES
AROUND 1500 J/KG/. MAIN THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE SVR
HAIL...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT OVER SWRN IA WHERE AIRMASS HAS NOT BEEN CONVECTIVELY
STABILIZED YET. FARTHER NORTH...MORE MARGINAL INSTABILITY /MUCAPES
LESS THAN 1000 J/KG/ ACROSS FAR NWRN IA/SERN SD AND SWRN MN/ WILL
SUPPORT MORE LIMITED SVR HAIL POTENTIAL. THUS A NEW WW IS NOT
ANTICIPATED NORTH OF WW 160.
FARTHER SOUTH AN ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE LINE OVER CENTRAL MO...ON THE
NOSE OF THE MID LEVEL JET...WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH SERN
PORTION OF WW 160 /CENTRAL MO/ AND INTO NERN MO OVER THE NEXT FEW
HRS. GIVEN WANING INSTABILITY AND DEEPENING STABLE LAYER IN THE
LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET...A SVR WIND THREAT IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO
BE ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO WARRANT A NEW WW OVER NERN MO /EAST OF WW
160/.
..CROSBIE.. 04/07/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...MPX...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...
44149680 43939777 43319714 42299637 41309594 39759527
39109505 38919373 39009273 39979196 41719231 43609452
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 070321
SPC MCD 070321
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-070445-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0452
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1021 PM CDT THU APR 06 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN MO / NW AND N-CNTRL AR
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 157...159...
VALID 070321Z - 070445Z
THROUGH 0430Z...THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL EXIST FROM
HRO TO W OF RUE EWD TO E OF UNO SWD TO LIT. ISOLATED
TORNADOES...LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL REMAIN POSSIBLE
WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS.
AS OF 03Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED A BROKEN LINE OF STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS FROM BOONE COUNTY AR SWWD TO SCOTT COUNTY AR MOVING
245/40-50 KTS. EMBEDDED CELLS OVER BOONE AND LOGAN/YELL COUNTIES
INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF MESOCYCLONES WITH REFLECTIVITY DATA
SUGGESTING HP SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS.
LOCAL PROFILERS AND VWPS INDICATE THAT INFLOW AIR MASS ACROSS THE
NWRN QUARTER OF AR IS STRONGLY SHEARED WITH 0-1 KM SRH OF 400-500
M2/S2 AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 65-75 KTS. PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY IS
WHETHER THESE STORMS ARE TRULY SURFACE-BASED OR SLIGHTLY ELEVATED
ABOVE A NEAR SURFACE INVERSION. RELATIVELY LIGHT SURFACE
WINDS...GROUND CLUSTER SIGNATURE OBSERVED ON LIT 88D AND RUC
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST THAT THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE ELEVATED TO
SOME DEGREE WHICH MAY TEND TO LIMIT A GREATER TORNADO THREAT.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STRONG SHEAR AND UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE DEPTH
OF THIS INVERSION...POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES STILL
EXISTS...IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.
FARTHER TO THE N IN MO...COMPARATIVELY WEAKER INSTABILITY APPEARS TO
BE LIMITING STORM INTENSITY. SHOULD CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...AN
ADDITIONAL WW MAY NOT BE NEEDED ACROSS E-CNTRL AND PARTS OF SERN MO.
HOWEVER...A NEW TORNADO WATCH MAY BECOME NECESSARY WITHIN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS OVER NERN AR PERHAPS INTO FAR SERN MO.
..MEAD.. 04/07/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...
38849490 38819167 34639137 34719462
NNNN