SPC MCD 091435
OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-091530-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0611
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0935 AM CDT SUN MAY 09 2004
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND SRN LOWER MI...EXTREME NRN IND AND NRN OH
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 091435Z - 091530Z
SRN LOWER MI...EXTREME NRN IND AND NRN OH WILL BE UPGRADED TO A
SLIGHT RISK ON THE MORNING UPDATE. SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THREAT FOR HAIL AND ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND.

THIS MORNING A QUASISTATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS NRN OH WWD TO
NEAR THE IND/MI BORDER. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER 60S EXIST IN WARM SECTOR S OF THE BOUNDARY UNDERNEATH
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF CLOUDS...SUGGESTING THIS AREA WILL RECEIVE SUBSTANTIAL
HEATING THAT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY. WITH ONLY A
WEAK CAP PRESENT...STORMS MAY DEVELOP BY 18Z.

..DIAL.. 05/09/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...
42848570 42038108 41128094 41248288 41848615
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 091520
SPC MCD 091520
VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-091745-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0612
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1020 AM CDT SUN MAY 09 2004
AREAS AFFECTED...NE GA...WRN SC...WRN NC AND SW VA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 091520Z - 091745Z
SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING AND INTENSIFY
ALONG THE SRN APPALACHIANS AND FOOTHILLS AREAS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS.
VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS ALREADY STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OF WRN NC. AN ISOLATED STORM HAS ALSO DEVELOPED ALONG A
SUBTLE BOUNDARY NEAR GREENSBORO. THE 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM ROANOKE AND
GREENSBORO SHOW STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PLACE. STRONG HEATING WILL
CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AND ENHANCE OROGRAPHIC
FORCING. VERTICAL SHEAR IS WEAK...BUT THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES APPEAR
SUFFICIENT FOR PULSE SEVERE STORMS. MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000
J/KG...COLD AIR ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL. ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

..DIAL.. 05/09/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...GSP...MRX...FFC...
35158420 36218239 37407981 36167891 34968207 34638373
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 091612
SPC MCD 091612
MDZ000-PAZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-091845-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0613
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1112 AM CDT SUN MAY 09 2004
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN WV...S-CENTRAL PA...CENTRAL/NRN
VA...WRN/CENTRAL MD...WASHINGTON D.C. METRO
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 091612Z - 091845Z
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SRN PA/WRN MD/ERN WV DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. STORMS DEVELOPING IN
THIS REGION WILL MOVE GENERALLY 280/20 KT. THREAT OF HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS MAY NECESSITATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

AT 16Z...CIN HAS RAPIDLY DIMINISHED ACROSS ERN WV NWD INTO S-CENTRAL
PA IN RESPONSE TO CONTINUED SURFACE HEATING /TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
TO MID 80S NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE/. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER CU ACROSS THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
DISCUSSION AREA IS ON THE SRN FRINGE OF THE WESTERLIES...WITH ETA
AND RUC MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING AROUND 30 KT OF SFC-6KM SHEAR
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A
FEW LONGER LIVED STORMS AND SHORT CONVECTIVE LINE SEGMENTS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING SEVERE HAIL AND WIND. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WILL
LEAD TO 100MB MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE FORCING IS WEAK...ISOLATED STORMS FORMING OVER
THE MTNS SHOULD MOVE EWD INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN OF CENTRAL/NRN
VA...CENTRAL MD...AND S-CENTRAL PA TOWARD MID-LATE AFTERNOON
SUSTAINED BY SUFFICIENT CAPE AND SHEAR.


..BANACOS.. 05/09/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...
38917983 40097891 40147786 40037708 38937687 38387706
37827753 37537812 37417894 37878042
NNNNZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 091648
SPC MCD 091648
MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-091915-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0614
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1148 AM CDT SUN MAY 09 2004
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WI...FAR NERN IL...CENTRAL/SRN MI...FAR NRN
IND...AND NWRN OH
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 091648Z - 091915Z
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ACROSS SERN WI/NERN IL DURING THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO. A WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED SHORTLY.
AT 1630Z...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE VORTEX MOVING ENEWD ACROSS FAR SRN WI. THE TRACK OF THIS
FEATURE IS VERY NEAR TO THE STRONG QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT THAT
EXTENDS FROM MSN EWD TO THE LAKE BREEZE ALONG THE SWRN LAKE MICHIGAN
SHORE. THE FRONT EXTENDS EWD ACROSS LOWER MI FROM MKG TO FNT.
MCV WILL LIKELY AID IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...POSSIBLY ACROSS FAR
SERN WI/NRN IL DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ACARS DATA MODIFIED FOR
CURRENT SURFACE CONDITIONS AT ORD INDICATES CIN IS NEAR ZERO.
MODERATE INSTABILITY...WITH MLCAPE VALUES INCREASING TO 1000-1500
J/KG AND ENHANCED SHEAR WITH MCV MAY SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. PRIMARY
THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL...INCLUDING AREAS NORTH OF THE FRONTAL
ZONE WHERE ELEVATED STORMS TAPPING UNSTABLE AIR TO THE SOUTH WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL.


..BANACOS.. 05/09/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...
41528717 41768953 42948971 43698964 43908860 43808657
43688326 43128253 42198282 41928314 41278464
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 091743
SPC MCD 091743
PAZ000-091945-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0615
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1243 PM CDT SUN MAY 09 2004
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL PA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 091743Z - 091945Z
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS CENTRAL PA IN AN E-W
ORIENTED BAND. CELLS WILL TRACK GENERALLY ESEWD AT 20-25 KT.
THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED HAIL WITH THESE STORMS THROUGH
EARLY EVENING MAY NECESSITATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH DURING THE
NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

AT 1730Z...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TOWERING CUMULUS
HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN AN E-W ORIENTED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE
STRETCHING FROM 25 SE FKL TO JUST NORTH OF STATE COLLEGE. BOUNDARY
LAYER IS MORE DEEPLY MIXED ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF PA...AND AS THIS
AIR MASS ADVECTS EWD...DESTABILIZATION SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE ERN
HALF OF PA THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS MINIMAL IN
VICINITY OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING ON RADAR ACROSS JEFFERSON AND
CLEARFIELD COUNTIES IN W-CENTRAL PA.

MODERATELY STEEP 850-500MB LAPSE RATES /AROUND 7 C/KM/ WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO 100MB MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS CENTRAL PA. WBZ HEIGHTS OF 8-9 KFT SHOULD SUPPORT SEVERE HAIL
WITH LONGER LIVED STORMS. ALSO...MODERATE WLY FLOW ON STATE COLLEGE
VAD /30-35 KT IN 3-4 KM LAYER/ SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR LOCALIZED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH CONVECTIVE DOWNDRAFTS THIS AFTERNOON.

..BANACOS.. 05/09/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...CTP...PBZ...
41537942 41497829 41447707 41357612 41307568 40967546
40577537 40227569 40167656 40167786 40257883 40417949
40577980 41097986
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 091900
SPC MCD 091900
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-092130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0616
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0200 PM CDT SUN MAY 09 2004
AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SERN ND...ERN SD...AND SRN MN
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 091900Z - 092130Z
STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY IN THIS AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

THIS AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM ERN ND SWWD THROUGH NERN SD
AND FARTHER SW INTO SWRN SD. A WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS
ACROSS SRN MN NWWD THROUGH NERN SD WHERE IT INTERSECTS THE COLD
FRONT. THE WARM SECTOR S OF THESE BOUNDARIES CONTINUES TO
DESTABILIZE. UPPER 50S SURFACE DEWPOINTS... STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
SURFACE HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG
THIS AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN STRONG IN THIS REGION
THROUGH THE EVENING AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EWD THROUGH ND
AND SRN CANADA...SUPPORTING DEEP LAYER SHEAR FROM 40 TO 45 KT. AS
THE CAP CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE COLD FRONT FROM SE ND THROUGH NERN SD...AS WELL AS ALONG AND N
OF THE WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS MN.


..DIAL.. 05/09/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...
44229887 44779893 45519894 46429790 45679555 44599294
43979299 44059655 43499753 43479886
NNNNZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 091942
SPC MCD 091942
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-092215-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0617
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0242 PM CDT SUN MAY 09 2004
AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CNTRL NEB THROUGH NWRN KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 091942Z - 092215Z
SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON FROM WRN THROUGH CNTRL NEB INTO PARTS
OF NW KS. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

THIS AFTERNOON A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SERN SD
SWWD THROUGH N CNTRL AND SW NEB. THE DRY LINE EXTENDS SWD THROUGH
ERN CO. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES SWD THROUGH CNTRL AND SWRN SD. THE
ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE IN MOIST WARM SECTOR S AND E OF
THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND E OF THE DRY LINE FROM CNTRL NEB SWWD
THROUGH NW KS. MLCAPE WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 2500 J/KG THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE MOIST WARM SECTOR STILL APPEARS CAPPED TO
SURFACE BASED STORMS. HIGH BASED STORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN THE MORE
DEEPLY MIXED DRYER ENVIRONMENT ACROSS ERN CO AND INTO THE NEB
PANHANDLE...AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY INTENSIFY AS IT DEVELOPS
EWD INTO BETTER MOISTURE. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING ACROSS NEB...ALONG THE NE-SW ORIENTED BOUNDARY
AS THE CAP CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE
RELATIVELY WEAK IN THIS AREA SO MULTICELL STORMS SHOULD BE THE
DOMINANT MODE. HOWEVER...STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE NEB BOUNDARY
MAY OCCASIONALLY DEVELOP SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. DAMAGING WIND WILL BE
THE PRIMARY INITIAL THREAT WITH THE HIGH BASED ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER...THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL WILL INCREASE AS STORMS DEVELOP
FARTHER EWD ALONG THE BOUNDARIES NEAR THE MOIST AXIS.

..DIAL.. 05/09/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...BOU...CYS...
42309900 40270009 38580095 38310185 39540175 40490202
41720311 42430196 42900003
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 091946
SPC MCD 091946
MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-092115-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0618
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0246 PM CDT SUN MAY 09 2004
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NERN IL...FAR SERN WI...CENTRAL/SRN LOWER
MI...AND FAR NRN IND
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 170...

VALID 091946Z - 092115Z
CONTINUE WW.

AT 1935Z...TWO AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS EXIST ACROSS THE WATCH AREA.
AN MCV IS SUPPORTING A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SERN WI LAKE
SHORE SWD INTO THE CHICAGO METRO AREA. SWLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD
MAINTAIN A FEW SEVERE CELLS AS STORMS CROSS CENTRAL/SRN LAKE
MICHIGAN THROUGH 2130Z.

EAST OF LAKE MICHIGAN...AIR MASS HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ACROSS SRN LOWER MI WITH 100MB MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 2000-2500 J/KG
THIS HOUR. THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM BARRY COUNTY MI SSWWD TO
CASS COUNTY SHOULD CONTINUE WITH A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS AS THEY MOVE EWD AT 20 KT OR SO. LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
REGIME SHOULD DESTABILIZE AIR MASS ACROSS SERN MI DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS WITH A THREAT OF ADDITIONAL CELLS FORMING IN ADVANCE OF
EXISTING ACTIVITY ACROSS SWRN LOWER MI.


..BANACOS.. 05/09/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...LOT...MKX...
41238791 43508795 44138259 41848260
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 092007
SPC MCD 092007
OKZ000-TXZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-092230-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0619
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0307 PM CDT SUN MAY 09 2004
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM...W TX...EXTREME SE NM...OK PANHANDLE AND SW
KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 092007Z - 092230Z
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS STORMS
DEVELOP EWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED.

VISIBLE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW CONVECTION INCREASING OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NM AND SW TX...AS WELL AS ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM
NE NM THROUGH SE CO. THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF W TX
THROUGH SW KS HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE NEAR 2000
J/KG. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS IT DEVELOPS
SLOWLY EWD INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS. VERTICAL SHEAR IS RATHER
WEAK...BUT THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A
THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL.


..DIAL.. 05/09/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DDC...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...PUB...ABQ...
29480286 32360449 33700453 34380364 35660284 37710204
36810075 33020301 29860186
NNNNZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 092029
SPC MCD 092029
WIZ000-MNZ000-092200-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0620
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0329 PM CDT SUN MAY 09 2004
AREAS AFFECTED...SE AND E MN THROUGH W CNTRL WI
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 092029Z - 092200Z
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SEWD THROUGH ERN MN AND W CNTRL WI
INTO THE EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE LIKELY.
HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. AN
ADDITIONAL WW WILL BE ISSUED SOON FOR SE MN THROUGH W CNTRL WI.
THIS AFTERNOON THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE ALONG AND S
OF A WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM WRN WI INTO SE MN. SUPERCELL
STORM OVER S CNTRL MN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ESEWD SUPPORTED BY
LIFT AND MOIST UNSTABLE SWLY INFLOW ALONG AND N OF THE BOUNDARY.
SHORT TERM TRENDS SUGGEST THIS STORM MAY BE EVOLVING INTO A BOW ECHO
AND GIVEN 25F-30F TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS
STORM..THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND MAY INCREASE. OTHER STORMS MAY ALSO
DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY... ESPECIALLY TOWARD EARLY
EVENING AS THE SWLY LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS.


..DIAL.. 05/09/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...GRB...ARX...MPX...
44459005 44189205 44369423 45539291 45379173 45119005
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 092146
SPC MCD 092146
ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-092245-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0621
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0446 PM CDT SUN MAY 09 2004
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IL...EXTREME NERN I AND SRN WI
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 092146Z - 092245Z
MONITORING EXTREME NERN IA....NRN IL AND SRN WI FOR A POSSIBLE
WATCH.

ALTHOUGH CONVERGENCE IS WEAK...CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED RECENTLY
FROM 30 W OF DBQ TO 20 W MMO. THE CONVECTION IS MOVING NEWD THROUGH
AN AIR MASS THAT IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
80S. DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY FLOW IS FAVORABLE FOR STORMS TO
CONTINUE DEVELOP/SPREAD NEWD INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND MAY
INTENSIFY AS THEY INTERACT WITH WARM FRONT LOCATED ACROSS SRN WI.
POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE AND SOME SEVERE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.


..IMY.. 05/09/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...
41248824 41349032 42349198 43359182 44159127 44248967
43778795
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 092217
SPC MCD 092217
MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-092345-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0622
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0517 PM CDT SUN MAY 09 2004
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN IL...FAR NRN IND...AND CENTRAL/SRN LOWER MI
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 170...

VALID 092217Z - 092345Z
CONTINUE WW.

AT 22Z...CONVECTION HAS BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS ERN LAKE MICHIGAN
EWD ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN LOWER MI. CELLS WERE MOVING GENERALLY ENEWD
IN DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY FLOW PER GRR AND DET VAD WIND PROFILES.
SFC-6KM SHEAR OF AROUND 30 KT REMAINS SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
LONG-LIVED UPDRAFTS WITH AN ENHANCED THREAT OF LARGE HAIL. THE
WIDESPREAD NATURE OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD RAPIDLY USE THE MODERATE
CAPE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...LEADING TO A GENERAL DECREASE IN
THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY LATE THIS EVENING. UNTIL THEN...THREAT OF
LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN
LOWER MI.

ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS N-CENTRAL IL CONTINUE
MOVING ENEWD AT 25-30 KT. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE
CHICAGO METRO AREA BETWEEN 2330-0000Z. SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S ARE CONTRIBUTING TO 100MB MLCAPE VALUES OF
1000-1500 J/KG ACROSS NRN/NERN IL...WITHIN DEEPLY-MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER AIR SPREADING NEWD FROM ERN IA. POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR LARGE
HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS DURING THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS.

..BANACOS.. 05/09/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...LOT...
41178824 42058825 42358731 42658675 43218637 43788611
44148259 41848259 41498586
NNNNZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 092238
SPC MCD 092238
WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-NEZ000-100045-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0623
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0538 PM CDT SUN MAY 09 2004
AREAS AFFECTED...NW/W CNTRL WI...CNTRL/SRN MN
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 092238Z - 100045Z
CONTINUE TORNADO WW 173 AND SEVERE WW 171.

PRE-FRONTAL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE
NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS...ACROSS THE SIOUX FALLS SD AREA INTO THE
MINNEAPOLIS MN AREA...AND IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR STRONG
DESTABILIZATION. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG HEATING
HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG...
SUPPORTIVE OF VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS
EVOLUTION OF LARGE SEVERE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY
ONGOING ON NOSE OF THERMAL RIDGE...NEAR THE MINNEAPOLIS AREA...WHERE
DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD HAS BECOME FOCUSED AHEAD OF NORTHERN
BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS REGIME WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD INTO
NORTHERN WISCONSIN THIS EVENING...AS UPSTREAM TROUGH AXIS PROGRESSES
ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN.

STRONGER 2 HOUR SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED
EASTWARD ALONG WARM FRONT INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN...AND INTENSE
LEADING EDGE OF ONGOING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER SHOULD SPREAD INTO AREAS
NEAR/NORTH THROUGH NORTHEAST OF EAU CLAIRE BY 10/00-01Z.
OTHER INTENSE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG
TRAILING UPSTREAM LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENT ZONE...BENEATH THERMAL
RIDGE...SOUTH OF MINNEAPOLIS TOWARD THE SIOUX FALLS AREA.
VERY WARM BOUNDARY LAYER WITH LARGE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINTS SPREADS
WILL SUPPORT STRONG DOWNBURSTS...AND EVOLUTION OF SEVERAL SURGING
COLD POOL WITH GUSTY WINDS...IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL.
HOWEVER...ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ALONG WARM FRONT EAST OF
MINNEAPOLIS INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS.

..KERR.. 05/09/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...
44199637 44199517 44709446 45289327 45929288 46489227
46629108 46048981 44939022 44319107 43679269 43459390
43389464 43169586 42679702 42499765 43559782 44039709
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 092312
SPC MCD 092312
NEZ000-100115-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0624
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0612 PM CDT SUN MAY 09 2004
AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN THROUGH NERN NEB
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 172...

VALID 092312Z - 100115Z
NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WW LIKELY WILL BE NEEDED EAST OF WWS 171/172
WITHIN NEXT HOUR OR SO.

INCREASING/INTENSIFYING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING ALONG
PRE-FRONTAL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING OUT OF SOUTHWEST/ WEST
CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO THE SIOUX FALLS SD AREA. SURFACE TEMPERATURES
HAVE HEATED TO AROUND 90F ALONG THIS AXIS...AND WITH DEW POINTS IN
THE 50S...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE SUPPORTIVE OF DAMAGING
MICROBURSTS NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...IN ADDITION TO CONTINUING LARGE
HAIL THREAT.

BELT OF STRONGER FLOW EXTENDING FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...
WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH BEGINNING TO LIFT OUT OF WYOMING.
DIFLUENT/DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD ON TAIL END OF THIS TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WELL INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. FORCING ON NOSE OF STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY CENTRAL PLAINS
LOW-LEVEL JET WILL CONTRIBUTE TO EVOLUTION OF CLUSTER OF STORMS
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN NEBRASKA BY THE 02-03Z TIME FRAME.
EVOLUTION OF LARGE SURFACE COLD POOL APPEARS POSSIBLE...WHICH SHOULD
BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG GUSTY WINDS AS IT SURGES TOWARD THE
NEBRASKA/KANSAS BORDER LATER THIS EVENING.


..KERR.. 05/09/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD...
41380239 41780094 42069925 42599742 41449626 40439736
40209972 40450154
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 100008
SPC MCD 100008
NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-100215-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0625
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0708 PM CDT SUN MAY 09 2004
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN PA...NERN MD...SRN NJ...DE
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 100008Z - 100215Z
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL EXIST ACROSS FAR SERN PA
SEWD INTO SRN NJ/NERN MD/DE DURING THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS. EXPECTED
SHORT DURATION OF SEVERE THREAT WILL PRECLUDE WW ISSUANCE.
AT 00Z...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CELLS EXTEND FROM
CUMBERLAND COUNTY ESEWD INTO CHESTER COUNTY PA. STORMS ARE TRACKING
GENERALLY 300/25 KT...GENERALLY ALONG A MODEST NW-SE ORIENTED
LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ORIENTED FROM CENTRAL PA INTO SRN NJ.
GREATER INSTABILITY EXISTS JUST SOUTH OF THIS AREA...WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG
ACROSS NERN MD AND PART OF THE DELMARVA. LACK OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING
AND DIURNAL COOLING SHOULD LEAD TO A WEAKENING TREND OF MOST STORMS.
HOWEVER...A FEW SEVERE CELLS TAPPING BETTER AIR MASS ACROSS NERN MD
MAY PERSIST THROUGH 03Z OR SO WITH THE THREAT OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL
OR SEVERE WIND. GREATEST THREAT DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS SHOULD
MIGRATE INTO NERN MD/NRN DE/FAR SRN NJ.


..BANACOS.. 05/10/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...PHI...CTP...LWX...
39937769 40217750 40437692 40437632 40367593 40057553
39867531 39617508 39397515 39257537 39207589 39347662
39487746
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 100109
SPC MCD 100109
WIZ000-MIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-100315-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0626
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0809 PM CDT SUN MAY 09 2004
AREAS AFFECTED...WI...SRN MN
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 174...176...

VALID 100109Z - 100315Z
CONTINUE REMAINING VALID PORTIONS OF WWS.

INTENSE LEADING LINE OF STORMS HAS PROGRESSED SOUTHEAST OF EAU
CLAIRE...WHERE IT INTERSECTS SURFACE WARM FRONT...WHICH EXTENDS
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO AREAS NORTHEAST OF MADISON. DESPITE SLOW
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF WARM FRONT...WARMING OF BOUNDARY LAYER
EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN WISCONSIN WILL BE RESTRICTED BY
ONSET OF RADIATIONAL SURFACE COOLING IN WARM SECTOR...AND
STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF LAKE MICHIGAN. THUS...IT APPEARS DAMAGING
WIND THREAT ACROSS WASAU/WISCONSIN RAPIDS AREAS INTO THE VICINITY OF
APPLETON WILL BE LIMITED. A GRADUALLY DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE
INTENSITY SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE WITH LEAD CLUSTER OF STORMS.
THROUGH THE 02-04Z TIME FRAME...MOST INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
WILL REMAIN ALONG TRAILING CONFLUENT BAND NORTH/EAST OF THE LA
CROSSE AREA INTO VICINITY OF SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.
LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL PERSIST IN STRONGEST CELLS.
THREAT FOR LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AS
MEAN FLOW REGIME BECOMES WESTERLY...AND INTENSE CELLS BEGIN TO TRAIN
EASTWARD IN THE VICINITY OF INTERSTATE 90.


..KERR.. 05/10/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...
44309462 44429374 44459276 44439149 45579119 46549177
46658959 45728840 45018807 43448870 43529038 43139302
43319419 43219505 43259567 43269637 43959574 44379484
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 100204
SPC MCD 100204
OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-100300-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0627
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0904 PM CDT SUN MAY 09 2004
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SRN LOWER MI...NERN IL/NRN IND AND NWRN OH
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 175...

VALID 100204Z - 100300Z
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL SHOULD NOW BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT
APPEARS TO BE MINIMAL AND IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE THEN WW 175
WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLED EARLY.

OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO SURGE AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE LINE OVER NWRN OH.
THUS DAMAGING WIND THREAT APPEARS TO BE MINIMAL WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
THREAT WILL REMAIN FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS...AS LOW LEVEL JET IMPINGES ON CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW MESOHIGH.
ADDITIONALLY...CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER NCENTRAL IND MAY POSE A SHORT
TERM THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS INTO NERN IND THROUGH 03Z...IF CELL
MERGERS CAN ENHANCE DOWNDRAFTS BEFORE NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION
OCCURS.


..CROSBIE.. 05/10/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...LOT...
40988841 41578775 41638620 41958526 42208385 42038282
41428341 40958427 40958533
NNNNZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 100243
SPC MCD 100243
NEZ000-100445-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0628
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0943 PM CDT SUN MAY 09 2004
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL...SRN...ERN NEB
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 177...

VALID 100243Z - 100445Z
CONTINUE REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW.

LARGE-SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH MIGRATING OUT
OF THE NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS A LARGE PART OF
CENTRAL INTO NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA. ACTIVITY HAS GENERALLY BEEN
FOCUSED ALONG LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY
AXIS...WHICH IS BEGINNING TO BECOME OVERTURNED. EXCEPTION TO THIS
APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE IMPERIAL/MCCOOK AREAS...WHERE CAPPING
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL PERSIST. ON EDGE OF CAP ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WHERE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT CAPE OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG...FORCING ON NOSE OF 40 TO 50
KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL MAINTAIN MOST INTENSE CONVECTION
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STRONG GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY LEADING
EDGE OF OUTFLOW SURGING THROUGH THE GRAND ISLAND/KEARNEY AREAS
DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...WITH ADDITIONAL COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT
POSSIBLE THROUGH 06Z.


..KERR.. 05/10/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...
41189943 41409835 41869787 42339732 42399685 41869660
41089683 40489742 40149858 40129928 40369984 40840040
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 100321
SPC MCD 100321
WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-100515-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0629
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1021 PM CDT SUN MAY 09 2004
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN/CNTRL WI INTO SRN MN
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 176...

VALID 100321Z - 100515Z
RISK OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST ANOTHER
COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS REMAINING VALID PORTIONS OF WW.
LINE OF CONVECTION SURGING EASTWARD ON COLD POOL ACROSS CENTRAL
WISCONSIN HAS BEEN SLOWEST TO WEAKEN NEAR IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF
SURFACE WARM FRONT...WHERE FORCING/SHEAR PROFILES ARE ENHANCED.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST OF THE WISCONSIN RAPIDS
AREA INTO AREAS NEAR/SOUTH OF GREEN BAY BY 05-06Z...BEFORE MORE
RAPID WEAKENING LIKELY ENSUES ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN.
OTHERWISE...LARGE HAIL/STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN A THREAT
WITH TRAILING BAND EXTENDING INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...WHICH WILL BE
SLOW TO DIMINISH AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE LA CROSS WI/ROCHESTER
MN AREAS THROUGH 05Z.


..KERR.. 05/10/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX...MPX...DMX...
43699396 44139277 44289178 44069064 44008995 44478905
44858881 45158873 44918781 44448732 43658829 43438933
43399272
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 100428
SPC MCD 100428
NEZ000-100530-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0630
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1128 PM CDT SUN MAY 09 2004
AREAS AFFECTED...S CNTRL NEB/N CNTRL KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 177...

VALID 100428Z - 100530Z
REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED
AT 05Z.

WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD THROUGH THE
MID MISSOURI VALLEY OVERNIGHT. AS TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS INTO EASTERN
NEBRASKA...MODELS SUGGEST LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL REMAIN
FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH 06-09Z...ON NOSE OF
LOW-LEVEL JET...AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE RIDGE AXIS.
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN STEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT VIGOROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS GRAND ISLAND/HASTINGS/KEARNEY AND AREAS TO THE
IMMEDIATE SOUTH BEYOND 05Z. HOWEVER...SEVERE THREAT NOW APPEARS
LIMITED TO ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. RISK FOR LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
IS INCREASING IN SLOW MOVING TRAINING STORMS.


..KERR.. 05/10/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...GID...
40739966 41029915 41229835 41339789 41029746 40559742
40009836 40049907 40549972
NNNN