SPC MCD 270910
TXZ000-271045-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0224
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0310 AM CST SAT MAR 27 2004
AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 270910Z - 271045Z
ISOLD LARGE HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH TSTMS DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SWRN TX. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT IF TSTMS BECOME STRONGER
THAN ANTICIPATED...ONE MAY BE REQUIRED.
TSTMS HAVE BEEN INTENSIFYING FROM EAST OF KFST NEWD TOWARD KSWW AND
APPEAR TO BE DEVELOPING WHERE MIDLEVEL FLOW IS BECOMING INCREASING
DIFFLUENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH. RUC2 FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST ACTIVITY IS ELEVATED WITH LFCS NEAR 3KM AND MUCAPE OF 1800
J/KG. EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR APPEARS TO BE 30-35 KTS...OR ON
THE LOW END FOR ORGANIZED SUSTAINED SEVERE TSTMS. GIVEN STEEPER
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...A FEW OF THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS MAY PRODUCE
LARGE HAIL.

ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP ENEWD INTO PARTS OF NCNTRL TX LATER THIS
MORNING WITH A CONTINUED ISOLD LARGE HAIL THREAT.


..RACY.. 03/27/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF...
31400339 32520152 32839996 32689923 31759933 30340220
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 271312
SPC MCD 271312
KSZ000-OKZ000-271445-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0225
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0712 AM CST SAT MAR 27 2004
AREAS AFFECTED...NW/WCNTRL OK AND SCNTRL KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 271312Z - 271445Z
LINE OF TSTM HAS STRENGTHENED SOMEWHAT THIS MORNING AND MAY PRODUCE
ISOLD LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS AS IT MOVES INTO WCNTRL/NWRN OK
AND PARTS OF SWRN KS.

UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE INSTABILITY AXIS IS LOCATED
ACROSS THE ERN TX PNHDL NWD INTO SWRN KS...WHERE KAMA/KDDC HAS
MUCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG. FARTHER EAST TOWARD I-35...SOUNDINGS
INDICATE MUCH LESS INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
PRIND THAT AS INITIAL MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES NEWD...THE
LINE OF TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD NCNTRL OK AND SCNTRL KS.
IT IS LIKELY TO REMAIN LARGELY SUB-SEVERE GIVEN DECREASING
INSTABILITY/SHEAR FARTHER EAST. GIVEN SHOWERS/CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE
LINE...LITTLE HEATING IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST
MID-MORNING. AS SUCH...A WW IS NOT EXPECTED ATTM.

..RACY.. 03/27/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...
34829986 38219993 38389740 35849786
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 271512
SPC MCD 271512
KSZ000-OKZ000-271745-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0226
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0912 AM CST SAT MAR 27 2004
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SW/CNTRL KS...NW OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 271512Z - 271745Z
WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY AS EARLY AS 18Z.

SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE HEATING APPEARS LIKELY THROUGH MID DAY IN
PRE-FRONTAL LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. NOSE OF RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE VICINITY OF DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS...WHICH BY 18Z APPEARS LIKELY TO
BE LOCATED NEAR/JUST WEST OF DODGE CITY. DOWNWARD MIXING OF
LOW/MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES WILL LEAD TO A SHARPENING DRY LINE SOUTH OF
LOW INTO EXTREME WESTERN OKLAHOMA...WITH MOIST WARM SECTOR BOUNDARY
LAYER BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE. GREATEST DESTABILIZATION WILL
OCCUR ALONG/WEST OF 50 KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET...JUST TO THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST OF SURFACE LOW...WHERE MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE WILL
INCREASE TO 1500-2000 J/KG.

VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC MID/UPPER JET
STREAK ARE ALREADY LIFTING ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...AND MODEL
PROGS SUGGEST STRONGEST FORCING WITH THESE FEATURES WILL BECOME
COINCIDENT WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME JUST EAST OF
SURFACE LOW BY/SHORTLY AFTER 18Z. UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELD
LIKELY WILL BECOME SUFFICIENT TO BREAK CAP...SUPPORTING INTENSE
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE EAST/NORTHEAST OF DODGE CITY
THROUGH 21Z...WITH VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR
SUPERCELLS. PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE LARGE HAIL.
DAMAGING WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL
KANSAS...BUT THIS THREAT MAY DIMINISH DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS AS SOUTHWARD SURGING COLD FRONT UNDERCUTS ACTIVITY.

..KERR.. 03/27/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...AMA...
37890072 39279939 39489818 38139719 37119786 36599903
36970065
NNNNZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 271558
SPC MCD 271558
OKZ000-TXZ000-271800-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0227
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0958 AM CST SAT MAR 27 2004
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX PNHDL...WRN OK
CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS

VALID 271558Z - 271800Z
WEAK CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ALREADY EVIDENT IN LATEST VISIBLE
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY OVER THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS
APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE HEATING ALONG THE DRY
LINE...WHICH HAS CONTRIBUTED TO MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF
1000 J/KG. FURTHER DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR NEXT FEW HOURS WITH
ADDITIONAL DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG DRY
LINE REMAINING WEAK AS IT APPROACHES THE OKLAHOMA BORDER...MID-LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE/DRYING EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS EXPECTED TO
INHIBITED DEEP CONVECTION THROUGH AT LEAST THE 20-21Z TIME FRAME.
BUT...WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

..KERR.. 03/27/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...
36330080 36650042 36599951 36009917 34759951 34139981
33840051 34220094 35460111
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 271807
SPC MCD 271807
OKZ000-KSZ000-272000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0228
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1207 PM CST SAT MAR 27 2004
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WRN/NW...N CNTRL OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 271807Z - 272000Z
SEVERE THREAT...INCLUDING RISK FOR TORNADOES...APPEARS LIKELY TO
INCREASE WITHIN NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS.

MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE/DRYING CONTINUES TO BE INHIBITIVE TO
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG DRY LINE...NOW APPROACHING THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA
BORDER. HOWEVER...ONGOING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS SLOWLY
DEEPENING WITH SURFACE HEATING. TEMPERATURES ARE NEARING 80F ALONG
DRY LINE...AND MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE FOR MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
PARCELS WILL LIKELY APPROACH 2000 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON.
AS INITIAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS...
VEERING FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL STRENGTHEN LOW-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION ALONG/EAST OF DRY LINE. AT THE SAME TIME...WEAK COOLING
ABOVE THIS LAYER LIKELY WILL ERODE CAP SUFFICIENTLY FOR INTENSE
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS THE 20-21Z TIME FRAME.
WITH BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW REMAINING SOUTHERLY...LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS
WILL INCREASE IN SIZE/CLOCKWISE CURVATURE...AND SHOULD BECOME
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADOES. GREATEST RISK
APPEARS NEAR/SOUTH AND WEST OF ENID... POSSIBLY INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS...WEST OF WICHITA...BY LATE AFTERNOON.

..KERR.. 03/27/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...
36329979 37309906 37529828 37509712 36709667 35939678
35419740 35229808 35379941
NNNNZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 271811
SPC MCD 271811
IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-272045-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0229
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1211 PM CST SAT MAR 27 2004
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NCENTRAL/NERN NEB AND FAR SERN SD
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 271811Z - 272045Z
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS IN
A CONVECTIVE LINE AS IT PROGRESS EWD AROUND 20 KTS ACROSS
CENTRAL/ERN NEB...EVENTUALLY INTO POSSIBLY FAR SERN SD. OVERALL
THREAT APPEARS MARGINAL ENOUGH THAT A WW MAY NOT BE NECESSARY.
COLD FRONTAL FORCED LINE OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS MID
LEVEL DRYING OBSERVED ON IR/WV IMAGERY MOVES NEWD INTO CENTRAL/NRN
NEB. AS THIS MID LEVEL DRYING CONTINUES TO SPREAD NEWD...LAPSE RATES
AHEAD OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE...WHICH WERE EARLIER CONTAMINATED BY
PREVIOUS CONVECTION WILL STEEPEN. DESPITE ORGANIZED NATURE OF THE
CONVECTIVE LINE...OVERALL MARGINAL INSTABILITY DUE TO SATURATED LOW
LEVELS WILL PROVIDE FOR 500-1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE. THUS ONLY
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IS ANTICIPATED.


..CROSBIE.. 03/27/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...
40669811 40869929 41279946 42679894 42929810 42969658
42409655 40849705
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 271936
SPC MCD 271936
KSZ000-272130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0230
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0136 PM CST SAT MAR 27 2004
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WRN/SRN KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 35...

VALID 271936Z - 272130Z
CONTINUE REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 35...SEE TORNADO WW 37 FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

MOST VIGOROUS CONVECTION NOW TO THE SOUTHWEST OF GREAT BEND KS IS
LOCATED NEAR WEAK LOW ON NOSE OF LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE...WHERE
INSTABILITY/FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION HAVE BECOME
MAXIMIZED. SURFACE COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY SURGING SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS...AND TENDENCY WILL BE TO UNDERCUT ACTIVITY
ACROSS REMAINING VALID PORTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.
MOST INTENSE CONVECTION WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST OF GREAT
BEND...TOWARD THE WICHITA AREA...WHERE STRONGEST SURFACE PRESSURE
FALLS ARE NOW FOCUSED. SURFACE WARM ADVECTION AND WEAK SURFACE
HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING FAVORABLE BOUNDARY LAYER
ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADOES...BEFORE COLD FRONT
PROGRESSES THROUGH REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY AROUND 00Z.

..KERR.. 03/27/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ICT...DDC...
38209935 38669871 38569794 38139760 37599761 37219833
37099913 37939937
NNNNZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 271958
SPC MCD 271958
OKZ000-TXZ000-272200-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0231
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0158 PM CST SAT MAR 27 2004
AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN TX...FAR SWRN OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 271958Z - 272200Z
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP SWD FROM FAR SWRN OK INTO NWRN
TX IN THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR THE
NEED OF A WW BY 27/21Z.

LATEST VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY INDICATES THAT MODERATE CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THE CAP OVER FAR SWRN OK/NWRN TX FROM THE
SRN EDGE OF WW 36 INTO NWRN TX. ADDITIONALLY...THE DRYLINE APPEARS
TO BE BULGING IN THE VICINITY OF CDS...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO
LOCALLY ENHANCE CONVERGENCE AND FURTHER AID IN THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA. ALTHOUGH
LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS NOT AS STRONG AS AREAS FARTHER NORTH...WITH 0-1
KM SRH BETWEEN 100-150 M2/S2...ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.


..CROSBIE.. 03/27/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...
33140057 33980022 34439984 34409818 33759805 32659861
32790040
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 272034
SPC MCD 272034
KSZ000-OKZ000-272230-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0232
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0234 PM CST SAT MAR 27 2004
AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/NRN OK...S CNTRL KS
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 35...37...

VALID 272034Z - 272230Z
CONTINUE REMAINING VALID PORTIONS OF WWS.

20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES SHARPENING DRY LINE NOW EXTENDS EAST
OF DODGE CITY KS INTO AREAS SOUTHWEST OF ALTUS OK. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES HAVE HEATED INTO THE LOWER/MID 80S TO THE IMMEDIATE
WEST OF DRY LINE...AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION TO THE EAST
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WITH MEAN
MIXED LAYER CAPE INCREASING TO 2000 J/KG...ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
INTENSIFY FURTHER NEXT FEW HOURS. A COUPLE OF TORNADOES HAVE
ALREADY BEEN PRODUCED BY STRONGEST SUPERCELLS...AND AN ISOLATED
STRONG TORNADO OR TWO APPEARS POSSIBLE NORTHWEST OF OKLAHOMA CITY
INTO THE WICHITA AREA BY AROUND 28/00Z.

WITH LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION INCREASING ALONG
SOUTHEASTWARD SURGING COLD FRONT...THUNDERSTORMS MAY BEGIN
CONSOLIDATING INTO LARGER CONVECTIVE CLUSTER BETWEEN ENID AND
WICHITA AFTER 28/00Z. POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL
PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ALSO
BECOMING INCREASING THREAT.


..KERR.. 03/27/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...
36169934 37229944 37879885 38669779 38379635 37659602
36889630 35829762 34919882 35349948
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 272104
SPC MCD 272104
KSZ000-NEZ000-272300-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0233
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0304 PM CST SAT MAR 27 2004
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 272104Z - 272300Z
CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...BUT NEW WW ACROSS
EASTERN KANSAS MAY NOT BECOME NECESSARY.

VIGOROUS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS...SUPPORTED BY STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION FIELD FOCUSED NEAR SURFACE COLD FRONT...WILL PROGRESS EAST OF
THE CONCORDIA AND SALINA AREAS BY THE 22-23Z TIME FRAME.
PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN KANSAS HAS BEEN
COOLED/STABILIZED BY WIDESPREAD CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION...AND DOES NOT
APPEAR LIKELY TO MAINTAIN INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
FURTHERMORE...PARCELS COMPRISING ONGOING ACTIVITY APPEAR TO HAVE
EMANATED FROM ENVIRONMENT VICINITY OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
THERMAL RIDGE...WHICH IS NOW BEGINNING TO BE SHUNTED SOUTHWARD
TOWARD THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER BY COLD FRONT. THUS...IT
CURRENTLY APPEARS SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AS CONVECTION
DEVELOPS EAST OF WW 35 AND NORTHEAST OF WW 37 LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

..KERR.. 03/27/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...
39809763 40459695 40409613 39479543 38339522 37509567
37249670 37939700 38869773
NNNNZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 272153
SPC MCD 272153
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-280000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0234
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0353 PM CST SAT MAR 27 2004
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 272153Z - 280000Z
CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED...BUT NEW WW IS NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED.

BROAD SOUTHERLY LOW/MID-LEVEL JET EXTENDS AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD
FRONT ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS APPEARS
TO BE ENHANCING WARM ADVECTION ALONG WEAK/WEAKENING THERMAL GRADIENT

...WHICH HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY...ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA...PAST SEVERAL HOURS. COINCIDENT WITH LEADING EDGE OF
MID/UPPER HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH UPSTREAM TROUGH...THIS
APPEARS TO BE THE SUPPORT FOR CLUSTER OF STORMS NOW NORTH OF
MCALESTER OK. ACTIVITY APPEARS BASED ABOVE BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH
CAPE FOR LIFTED PARCELS GENERALLY ON THE ORDER OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG.
MODELS SUGGEST THERMAL GRADIENT ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA WILL
CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
FORCING WILL DIMINISH AS WELL...AND ACTIVITY APPEARS MORE THAN
LIKELY TO WEAKEN AS IT SPREADS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE OZARKS NEXT
FEW HOURS.


..KERR.. 03/27/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...OUN...
35879600 36559489 36719416 36049380 35309424 34749561
34909619 35299640
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 272308
SPC MCD 272308
OKZ000-TXZ000-272345-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0235
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0508 PM CST SAT MAR 27 2004
AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL OK
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 36...

VALID 272308Z - 272345Z

...TORNADO WATCH #36 WILL BE REPLACED SHORTLY...
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS HAVE LIFTED OFF THE DRY LINE AS THEY MOVE TOWARD
CNTRL/NCNTRL OK. THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT STRONG ROTATION
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES. OTHER CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP SOUTH ALONG THE COLD FRONT INTO NWRN OK. CONTINUED SWD
DEVELOPMENT...WITH ADDITIONAL DRY LINE INITIATION IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TORNADO WATCH 36 WILL BE REPLACED SHORTLY.

..DARROW.. 03/27/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...
34459970 36939891 36669671 34309789
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 280212
SPC MCD 280212
OKZ000-280315-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0236
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0812 PM CST SAT MAR 27 2004
AREAS AFFECTED...WRN OK
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 38...

VALID 280212Z - 280315Z

...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN ACROSS THE WW...
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING HAS APPARENTLY PROVED QUITE HOSTILE TO
ONGOING CONVECTION...BOTH FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...AND FOR ACTIVITY ALONG THE BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH GRADUAL
WEAKENING HAS BEEN OBSERVED IT APPEARS LARGE SCALE FORCING SHOULD
OVERSPREAD THE DRY LINE IN WRN OK OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AN
EXPANDING AREA OF SHALLOW CONVECTION WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS
SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE AND THIS APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE OF A SECONDARY LOBE OF VORTICITY APPROACHING
THE REGION. THUNDERSTORMS MAY INCREASE ALONG THE COLD FRONT...THEN
SWD ALONG THE DRY LINE TO NEAR THE UPPER JET AXIS POSITION LATER
THIS EVENING. LARGE HAIL IS THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT.

..DARROW.. 03/28/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...
34569971 36059933 36919786 36779626 35559695 34399832
NNNN