SPC MCD 041243
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-041445-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0724
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0743 AM CDT SUN MAY 04 2003
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IA / WRN IL / MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 230...

VALID 041243Z - 041445Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT -- PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF MARGINALLY-SEVERE
HAIL -- CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF WW AREA...ESPECIALLY THE SRN
PORTIONS OF WW.

LATEST DATA SUGGESTS THAT AIRMASS E OF THE MS RIVER REMAINS STABLE
ATTM...BUT ELEVATED INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH WWD EXTENT ACROSS MO
AS DOES STRENGTH OF DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD. AS MID-LEVEL JET NOW
NOSING INTO SWRN MO SHIFTS EWD...SEVERE THREAT MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY
ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN MO OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. GIVEN STABLE
BOUNDARY LAYER...EXPECT MARGINALLY-SEVERE HAIL TO BE THE MAIN SEVERE
THREAT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.


..GOSS.. 05/04/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...OAX...
37559301 39819522 41329593 41539303 39049089 37569117
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 041448
SPC MCD 041448
IAZ000-MNZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-SDZ000-041645-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0725
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0948 AM CDT SUN MAY 04 2003
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB/WRN IA/SW MN/SE SD
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 041448Z - 041645Z
CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF WW.
STRONG CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL JET IS GRADUALLY MIGRATING OUT OF THE
SOUTH CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY EVIDENT IN LATEST WATER
VAPOR LOOPS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...ON NOSE OF MID-LEVEL DRY
SLOT...AND HAS BECOME FOCUS FOR INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.

ACTIVITY IS ROOTED IN MOIST LAYER ABOVE INVERSION...NORTH OF SURFACE
WARM FRONT WHICH EXTENDS SOUTH OF BEATRICE INTO A DEEPENING CYCLONE
SOUTH OF HASTINGS. MORNING SOUNDINGS AND MODEL PROGS SUGGEST CAPE
APPROACHING 2000 J/KG FOR LIFTED PARCELS...MAINLY IN CLOSE PROXIMITY
TO WARM FRONT VICINITY OF THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER...WITH CAPE
LESSENING IN AREAS TO THE NORTH. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY APPEARS LIKELY
TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY
NEXT FEW HOURS....EVOLVING INTO LARGER CONVECTIVE CLUSTER...BUT
PRIMARY THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH POTENTIALLY VERY LARGE HAIL MAY
REMAIN COFINED TO AREAS NEAR/SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH OF OMAHA.

..KERR.. 05/04/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...
43329751 43889651 43629530 42879480 41489460 40489564
39979640 39939727 40639722 41479654 42189703 42569760
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 041519
SPC MCD 041519
KSZ000-041715-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0726
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1019 AM CDT SUN MAY 04 2003
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 041519Z - 041715Z
AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF WW...WHICH COULD BECOME
NECESSARY WITHIN THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS.

INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC MID/UPPER FLOW FIELD PROGGED BY MODELS AT MID
DAY ACROSS KANSAS HAS BECOMING INCREASINGLY EVIDENT IN LATEST WATER
VAPOR LOOPS...WITH SURFACE LOW CONTINUING TO DEEPEN SOUTH OF
HASTINGS NEB. WARM FRONT CURVES EAST OF LOW ACROSS EXTREME SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO THE TOPEKA KS AND JOPLIN MO AREAS. SURFACE
DRY LINE TRAILS SOUTH OF LOW INTO AREAS EAST OF DODGE CITY...BUT
LIKELY WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE EASTWARD NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...DOWNWARD MIXING OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES.
MOIST WARM SECTOR WITH UPPER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS IS HEATING
THROUGH THE 70S.

GIVEN PRESENCE OF STRONG CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY AND EVOLUTION OF
MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG...POTENTIAL FOR RAPID
INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS HIGH. WHILE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER
CONTINUES TO EVOLVE FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE MID MISSOURI
VALLEY...BEST POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE/NEAR SURFACE-BASED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH 18Z APPEARS TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF WARM FRONT
NEAR TOPEKA. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO THEN CONTINUE DEVELOPING
SOUTHWARD ALONG DRY LINE...WHICH SHOULD SURGE INTO AREAS NEAR/EAST
OF WICHITA BY 21Z. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE ALREADY STRONG AND
SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS...WITH THREAT FOR TORNADOES INCREASING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.


..KERR.. 05/04/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...
39879644 39909602 39689530 38779506 38129557 37489645
37029720 37409804 38219758 38909747 39409743
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 041644
SPC MCD 041644
OKZ000-KSZ000-041945-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0727
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1144 AM CDT SUN MAY 04 2003
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK AND PARTS SE KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 041644Z - 041945Z
STRONGER MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS/SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...WITH INCREASINGLY
CYCLONIC FLOW EVIDENT IN LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOPS AS FAR SOUTH AS
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. AS THIS FORCING
SPREADS EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY THE 20-21Z TIME...
MID-LEVEL CAP WILL WEAKEN AND DRY LINE WILL SHARPEN UP ALONG/EAST OF
THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS IN WARM
SECTOR WILL LIKELY EXHIBIT LITTLE VEERING WITH HEIGHT...VERTICAL
SHEAR BENEATH MID/UPPER JET IS STRONG AND MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR
SUPERCELLS. LOW-LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS ALREADY
SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADOES... WITH ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOES POSSIBLE
BY/SHORTLY AFTER 21Z.


..KERR.. 05/04/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...
36139718 36799709 37639571 37539464 36069466 34559501
33849621 34039711 35339717
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 041702
SPC MCD 041702
ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-041930-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0728
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1202 PM CDT SUN MAY 04 2003
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CENTRAL MS...WRN AL...AND SWRN TN
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 041702Z - 041930Z
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS NRN/CENTRAL MS...WRN
AL...AND SWRN TN BETWEEN 18-21Z. THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS
ACTIVITY MAY NECESSITATE A WW DURING THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS.
VISIBLE IMAGERY AT 1630Z INDICATES LOW-LEVEL CLOUD STREETS ACROSS
THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION CONSISTENT WITH A SURGE OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE NWD ACROSS NERN MS AND WRN AL. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW
70S HAVE REACHED A LIT-GTR LINE. A BOUNDARY BETWEEN THIS AIR MASS
AND SHALLOWER/COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS SRN TN...FAR NRN MS...AND
NWRN AL WILL FOCUS AN AXIS OF LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM
ADVECTION. ALTHOUGH SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS PRESENTLY OVER THE
AREA...DESTABILIZATION AND A MORE ZONAL FLOW REGIME BY MID
AFTERNOON...COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL LIFT SHOULD RESULT IN A NW-SE
ORIENTED BAND OF T-STORMS ACROSS SWRN TN AND NRN/CENTRAL MS. STORMS
SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT ELEVATED...HOWEVER... AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO MUCAPE VALUES OF 2500-3000 J/KG. ALSO...50KT SFC-6KM
SHEAR ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA PER VAD WIND
PROFILES SHOULD SUPPORT ROTATING STORMS. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL ARE
EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN THREATS...HOWEVER ...IF A STORM IN THIS
REGION CAN BECOME ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...TORNADOES WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE.


..BANACOS.. 05/04/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...
32778920 33739015 34599047 35408963 35048825 34278751
32668748 32488855
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 041714
SPC MCD 041714
IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-041915-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0729
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1214 PM CDT SUN MAY 04 2003
AREAS AFFECTED...SE NE...SW IA...NW MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 041714Z - 041915Z
THREAT FOR LONG LIVED SUPERCELLS WITH POSSIBLE STRONG TORNADOES IS
INCREASING ACROSS THE LOWER/MID MISSOURI VALLEY.

RAPID INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING ON NOSE OF DRY
SLOT...NORTH OF SURFACE SURFACE LOW WHICH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DEEPEN
SOUTH OF HASTINGS NEB. STRONGER 2 HOUR SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ARE
BECOMING FOCUSED NORTHEAST OF SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA...AND SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF DRY LINE INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS.
BY 21Z SURFACE LOW APPEARS LIKELY TO MIGRATE TOWARD THE BEATRICE NEB
AREA...WITH DRY LINE CURVING SOUTHWARD INTO THE VICINITY OF TOPEKA
KS. STRONGLY DIFLUENT AND DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD WILL AID RAPID
DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND NORTHEAST KANSAS...WHICH WILL DEVELOP
NORTHEASTWARD INTO PARTS OF SOUTHWEST IOWA/NORTHWEST MISSOURI BY
LATE AFTERNOON.

LOW-LEVEL INVERSION LAYER ON COOL SIDE OF SURFACE WARM FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON...WITH FURTHER
SURFACE HEATING AND CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SURFACE LOW CENTER. BACK FLOW
JUST AHEAD OF THIS LOW WILL ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE
BENEATH STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AND STRONG WEST SOUTHWESTERLY
MID/UPPER JET...AND WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG
TORNADOES AS LOW-LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT BECOMES
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE.


..KERR.. 05/04/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...
40719735 41289706 41599575 41129496 40389425 39439434
38789498 38919621 39489652 39849676
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 041744
SPC MCD 041744
KYZ000-INZ000-042045-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0730
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1244 PM CDT SUN MAY 04 2003
AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL KY
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 041744Z - 042045Z
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL WILL PERSIST AND SLOWLY DEVELOP EASTWARD
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THREAT APPEARS ISOLATED ENOUGH THAT WW IS NOT
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

PERSISTENT BAND OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. LOW-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION IN BAROCLINIC ZONE NORTHEAST OF SURFACE WARM FRONT IS
PROVIDING FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...WITH ACTIVITY AIDED BY
DIFLUENT UPPER FLOW REGIME BENEATH SHORT WAVE RIDGING DOWNSTREAM OF
TROUGH MIGRATING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL HAVE DEVELOPED DURING THE PAST COUPLE
OF HOURS NEAR PADUCAH...ON NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF CAPPING SUBTROPICAL
UPPER RIDGE...WHERE LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE INFLUX
ARE ENHANCED ON NOSE OF 700 MB JET. ACTIVITY APPEARS BASED IN THE
850 MB AND 700 MB LAYER...WITH CAPE FOR LIFTED PARCELS APPARENTLY A
BIT GREATER THAN THAT PROGGED IN MODEL POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS...
AND SHOULD SHIFT WITH STRONGER FORCING/DESTABILIZATION ALONG/SOUTH
OF THE OHIO RIVER INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY BY LATE AFTERNOON.

..KERR.. 05/04/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LMK...PAH...
37028789 37418789 37748723 38008591 37588526 36908552
36688664 36688778
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 041855
SPC MCD 041855
NEZ000-042100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0731
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0155 PM CDT SUN MAY 04 2003
AREAS AFFECTED...S CNTRL NEB
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 231...

VALID 041855Z - 042100Z
SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS WW 231.

18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES SURFACE PRESSURE NEAR LOW CENTER HAS
FALLEN TO/BELOW 989 MB...VICINITY OF THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF HASTINGS NEB. PRESSURE FALLS CONTINUE...WITH MOST
RAPID FALLS NOW CENTERED NEAR/NORTH OF BEATRICE. IN ASSOCIATION
WITH LOW/MID-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS...LARGE INTENSE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER
CONTINUES TO FORM IN THE GRAND ISLAND/HASTINGS AREA. MUCH OF THIS
CLUSTER APPEARS TO BE ABOVE SURFACE/NEAR SURFACE BASED INVERSION
LAYER...WITH LARGE HAIL PRIMARY THREAT. HOWEVER AN ISOLATED TORNADO
THREAT WILL PERSIST WITH SUPERCELL JUST SOUTHEAST OF HASTINGS...AND
GUSTY...POTENTIAL DAMAGING WINDS...MAY BECOME INCREASING THREAT HAS
SURFACE COLD POOL DEVELOPS AND SPREADS EAST SOUTHEAST OF THE
HASTINGS AREAS...ALONG SURFACE WARM FRONT. SURFACE DRY LINE
INTERSECTS FRONT NEAR BEATRICE...PROVIDING FOCUS FOR POTENTIAL
ADDITIONAL SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT THROUGH 21Z.


..KERR.. 05/04/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...
40549846 40919810 40939701 40579618 40189646 40249733
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 041916
SPC MCD 041916
OKZ000-TXZ000-042115-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0732
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0216 PM CDT SUN MAY 04 2003
AREAS AFFECTED...N-CENTRAL TX AND SRN OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 041916Z - 042115Z
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ACROSS N-CENTRAL TX
AND SRN OK DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

AT 19Z...A SURFACE DRYLINE WAS LOCATED FROM 30W ADM TO 45W MWL TO
NEAR ABI. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT SOME TOWERING CU
HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ALONG/NEAR THE DRYLINE. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
FIELDS BASED ON THE RUC INDICATES AN AXIS OF 100MB MLCAPE VALUES OF
2500-3000 J/KG ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA...BETWEEN THE DRYLINE AND
REGION OF LOW CLOUDS FURTHER EAST IN NERN TX AND SERN OK.
ADDITIONALLY...CIN HAS LESSENED TO AROUND -25 J/KG FROM S-CENTRAL OK
SSWWD JUST WEST OF DFW METRO AREA. CONVECTIVE INITIATION APPEARS
POSSIBLE GIVEN ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO OF INSOLATION AND LOW-LEVEL
DESTABILIZATION.

MID-LEVEL JET /80-85KT AT 500MB/ IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER N-CENTRAL
TX AROUND 00Z. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR BASED ON 18Z FWD SOUNDING /50-55KT/
IS SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH A CONDITIONAL THREAT OF LARGE
HAIL/ISOLATED TORNADOES IF STORMS CAN IN FACT DEVELOP IN THIS
REGION. OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW IN
THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.


..BANACOS.. 05/04/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...
32319900 33209820 34639696 34299577 33159587 32439634
31969698 31689769 31819820
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 041922
SPC MCD 041922
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-042115-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0733
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0222 PM CDT SUN MAY 04 2003
AREAS AFFECTED...SE NEB...NE KS...NW MO
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 233...

VALID 041922Z - 042115Z
RAPID SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA...WITH A 6.6 MB 2 HOUR FALL CENTERED AT LINCOLN NEB AT 19Z.
SURFACE LOW CENTER IS NOW BELOW 987 MB AND MIGRATING TOWARD THE
LINCOLN/HASTINGS AREA...WHERE INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED AT
INTERSECTION OF THERMAL/MOISTURE AXES. STRONG FORCING FOR UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION LIKELY WILL SUPPORT RAPID INTENSE SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT AROUND LINCOLN...WHICH MAY AFFECT THE OMAHA AREA BY THE
21-22Z TIME FRAME...WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOES AND
VERY LARGE HAIL.

ADDITIONAL SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES NEAR WARM FRONT WEST OF
THE KANSAS CITY AREA...WITH DEEPENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALSO
OCCURRING ALONG DRY LINE WEST OF TOPEKA AND EMPORIA.

..KERR.. 05/04/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...
41059711 41349699 41529583 41249508 40759455 39739455
38409496 37459579 38129635 40339598
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 041958
SPC MCD 041958
KSZ000-042130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0734
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0258 PM CDT SUN MAY 04 2003
AREAS AFFECTED...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 041958Z - 042130Z
W CENTRAL TO N CENTRAL KS AREA IS BEING CONSIDERED FOR A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN THE NEXT 30-60 MIN.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORMING E/NE OF A MID LEVEL VORT MAX OVER W
CENTRAL KS...INVOF A SW-NE ORIENTED BOUNDARY THAT TRAILS SWWD FROM
THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC LOW IN NEB. THOUGH AREAS S OF THIS BOUNDARY
ARE W OF THE DRYLINE IN THE DRY/DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...A WRAP
AROUND FEED OF 50 DEW POINTS FROM THE N PERSISTS FROM ACROSS N
CENTRAL KS. STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE IN ADVANCE OF THE MID LEVEL
VORT MAX AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOULD SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT E/NEWD FROM W CENTRAL INTO N
CENTRAL KS THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND COOL MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND STRONG
DOWNBURST WINDS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.


..THOMPSON.. 05/04/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...
38309928 38050060 38230137 38800134 39230002 39919888
39849825 39729785 38989797
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 042005
SPC MCD 042005
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-042200-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0735
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0305 PM CDT SUN MAY 04 2003
AREAS AFFECTED...SE KS...ERN OK
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 232...

VALID 042005Z - 042200Z
POTENTIAL FOR LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS IS INCREASING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
KANSAS/EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

WITH APPROACH OF PEAK HEATING...AND EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...MID-LEVEL
CAP IS WEAKENING. SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS UNDERWAY
ALONG DRY LINE...WHICH CONTINUES TO SHARPEN WEST OF EMPORIA KS INTO
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...NOW ALONG THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR. EMBEDDED
WITHIN STRONGLY SHEARED AND UNSTABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITH
MEAN MIXED CAPE AROUND 3000 J/KG...ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AND INTENSIFY. VERY LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...
ACCOMPANYING SUPERCELLS ALONG/AHEAD OF DRY LINE...WHICH WILL LIKELY
EXTEND ALONG THE MISSOURI/KANSAS BORDER THROUGH JOPLIN INTO THE
MCALESTER OK AREA BY 05/00Z.


..KERR.. 05/04/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...
37299594 37939544 37819421 36979400 35879435 35029491
34799584 35979594 36749593
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 042056
SPC MCD 042056
IAZ000-MOZ000-042300-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0736
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0356 PM CDT SUN MAY 04 2003
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN IA...N CNTRL MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 042056Z - 042300Z
SEVERE THREAT WILL INCREASE NORTHEAST OF TORNADO WATCH 233 BY EARLY
EVENING. NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL IOWA/NORTH
CENTRAL MISSOURI WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

MODELS SUGGEST STRONGEST UPPER DIFLUENCE/DIVERGENCE CURRENTLY
CENTERED OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING FOCUSED OVER SOUTHWEST IOWA BY
05/00Z. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...
MOST INTENSE OF WHICH NOW IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE OMAHA AREA...
NEAR DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE. THREAT FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS WILL
CONTINUE ANOTHER FEW HOURS NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER...BUT A GRADUAL
EVOLUTION OF LARGER MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM/SQUALL LINE IS
LIKELY ALONG LEADING EDGE OF MID-LEVEL COOLING...WHICH WILL SPREAD
INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL IOWA/MISSOURI BY EARLY EVENING.

..KERR.. 05/04/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...
42139618 42339535 42159342 41519224 40459203 39649251
39059307 39909389 41109432 41369526 41479582
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 042128
SPC MCD 042128
MOZ000-KSZ000-042230-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0737
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0428 PM CDT SUN MAY 04 2003
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN KANSAS CITY METRO AREA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 233...

VALID 042128Z - 042230Z
TWO TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ARE MOVING NEWD ACROSS THE NW PART OF THE
KANSAS CITY METRO AREA AT THIS TIME. ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS WILL
REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE FOR STRONG/LONG-LIVED TORNADOES IN THE KANSAS
CITY AREA FOR THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.


..PETERS.. 05/04/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...EAX...
39849516 40099428 39569365 39059368 38969483
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 042143
SPC MCD 042143
MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-042345-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0738
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0443 PM CDT SUN MAY 04 2003
AREAS AFFECTED...NE OK/SE KS/SW AND W CENTRAL MO
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 232...

VALID 042143Z - 042345Z
THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES INCREASING ACROSS NE OK/SE KS/SW
AND W CENTRAL MO THROUGH 00Z.

MULTIPLE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NE OK/SE KS IN
THE PAST HOUR. THESE STORMS ARE INTENSIFYING AND WILL BE MOVING
ENEWD INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF MLCAPE NEAR 3000 J/KG...60 KT 0-6 KM
SHEAR... 150-300 M2/S2 0-1 KM SRH...AND LCL HEIGHTS AOB 1000 M. ALL
OF THESE PARAMETERS SUGGEST AN ENHANCED THREAT OF LONG-LIVED/INTENSE
TORNADOES ACROSS EXTREME NE OK/SE KS SPREADING INTO SW/W CENTRAL MO.
THE WIDTH OF THE WARM SECTOR SUGGESTS THESE STORMS WILL MAINTAIN A
SIGNIFICANT TORNADO THREAT FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS.

..THOMPSON.. 05/04/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...
37219366 36559477 36509554 36689579 37139575 38329488
38469439 38289339
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 042201
SPC MCD 042201
TNZ000-ALZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-050100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0739
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0501 PM CDT SUN MAY 04 2003
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN AR...WRN TN...NRN MS...NWRN AL...SWRN KY INTO
MO BOOTHEEL
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 042201Z - 050100Z
WE ARE MONITORING THE AREA FOR SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT. A TORNADO
WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED.

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WARM FRONT OVER WRN KY EXTENDING WWD INTO
EXTREME SERN MO. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NWD. MODERATE
INSTABILITY EXISTS SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH MLCAPES OF 1500-2500
J/KG. 20Z LZK SOUNDING SHOWS DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH
RELATIVELY LITTLE CIN DISTRIBUTED THROUGH A DEEP LAYER. WIND
PROFILES OVER THE AREA ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. HIGH RH
LEVELS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR
VECTORS SUGGEST A RELATIVELY HIGH PROBABILITY OF TORNADOES WITH ANY
SUPERCELLS THAT FORM.

LATEST RUC MODEL DEVELOPS PRECIPITATION BY 00Z OVER WRN TN AND ERN
AR. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. HIGH LFC
HEIGHTS INITIALLY COULD RETARD DEVELOPMENT UNTIL EVENING HOWEVER.

..JEWELL.. 05/04/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...LZK...
36569089 37038994 36548702 36148683 34868770 33918872
34579163
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 042220
SPC MCD 042220
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-042315-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0740
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0520 PM CDT SUN MAY 04 2003
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS/ERN OK/SWRN-SRN MO/NWRN-NRN AR
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 232...

VALID 042220Z - 042315Z
NEW WW WILL BE LIKELY BY 23Z TO REPLACE ERN HALF OF WW 232 AND
EXTEND EWD INTO PORTIONS OF SRN MO/NRN AR.

SURFACE ANALYSES SHOW THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NEWD THROUGH
SWRN/SRN MO WITH A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS MOVING EWD INTO SWRN
MO/NWRN AR WITH UPPER 60 SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO SWRN MO. REGIONAL
RADARS SHOW NEW STORMS DEVELOPING OVER WRN AR WITHIN THIS FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE STORMS. IN ADDITION...SEVERE STORM MOVING
INTO BARTON COUNTY MO ATTM WILL MOVE ALONG THE ERN EDGE OF WW 232
BETWEEN 23-00Z. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND VERY STRONG
DEEP LAYER SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A 100 KT SWLY 500 MB JET OVER ERN
OK...DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIKELY INTO THE EVENING
PRODUCING TORNADOES...HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

..PETERS.. 05/04/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...
37629120 34629225 34689514 36579516 37939440
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 042328
SPC MCD 042328
OKZ000-TXZ000-050130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0741
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0628 PM CDT SUN MAY 04 2003
AREAS AFFECTED...N TX...SRN OK
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 234...

VALID 042328Z - 050130Z
THREAT FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS CONTINUES.

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS NEARLY STATIONARY DRYLINE FROM ADH TO ADM TO
JUST W OF MWL. AIR MASS E OF DRYLINE REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE WITH
MLCAPES TO 3000 J/KG. FWS VWP SHOWS AROUND 400 M2/S2 SRH IN THE 0-3
KM LAYER ALONG WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR...FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC
SUPERCELLS. LATEST RUC AND ETA MODELS BOTH COOL THE CAP LAYER
BETWEEN 850 AND 700 MB THROUGH EARLY EVENING. LATEST RUC SHOWS
STRONG SUBSIDENCE BEHIND ERN OK STORMS...THIS LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN
CURRENT LACK OF CU ON VIS IMAGERY. UVVS CONTINUE HOWEVER OVER SERN
PORTIONS OF WATCH WHERE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS MOST LIKELY.

..JEWELL.. 05/04/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...
32129610 32279826 32789840 34149742 34879672 34619502
33009521
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 050019
SPC MCD 050019
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-050145-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0742
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0719 PM CDT SUN MAY 04 2003
AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN-SRN MO/NWRN-NRN AR
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 237...

VALID 050019Z - 050145Z
PARAMETERS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING TORNADIC SUPERCELLS OVER
MUCH OF SWRN-SRN MO AND NWRN-NRN AR.

REGIONAL RADARS SHOW MULTIPLE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS OVER THE NRN AND
SRN PORTIONS OF WW 237. SEVERAL SUPERCELLS ARE ALSO EMBEDDED WITHIN
AN AREA OF CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF AR FROM PERRY COUNTY
NEWD TO CLEBURNE COUNTY. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD THROUGH SRN
MO...MODERATE INSTABILITY AND VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH THE THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT
TORNADOES...HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

..PETERS.. 05/05/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...
37629120 34629225 34689514 36579516 37939440
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 050034
SPC MCD 050034
KYZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-050230-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0743
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0734 PM CDT SUN MAY 04 2003
AREAS AFFECTED...NE AR/SE MO/WRN TN/NRN MS/WRN KY
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 239...

VALID 050034Z - 050230Z
A DANGEROUS TORNADO SITUATION IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE WARM FRONT
FROM NE AR INTO WRN TN THIS EVENING. VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
/0-3 KM SRH IN EXCESS OF 500 M2/2/ AND A VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR
MASS COEXIST ALONG THE WARM FRONT ACROSS NE AR AND WRN TN. STORMS
FORMING IN AR WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS AND
MOVE EWD INTO WRN TN. ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL...A FEW OF THESE STORMS
MAY PRODUCE LONG-LIVED/INTENSE TORNADOES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
THE HIGH RISK AREA WILL BE EXTENDED EWD INTO WRN TN IN THE 01Z
OUTLOOK UPDATE.


..THOMPSON.. 05/05/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...LZK...
34398823 34409170 37219062 37208701
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 050039
SPC MCD 050039
IAZ000-MOZ000-050215-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0744
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0739 PM CDT SUN MAY 04 2003
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 236...

VALID 050039Z - 050215Z
SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER SRN IA
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A LINE OF SEVERE STORMS FROM DALLAS COUNTY SWD
TO RINGGOLD COUNTY IA MOVING EWD AT 25-30 KT...WITH ADDITIONAL
STORMS MOVING NEWD INTO SRN IA FROM MO. SWLY DEEP LAYER SHEAR
VECTORS OVER SRN IA WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN BOTH LINEAR
CONVECTION AND A FEW DISCRETE SUPERCELLS.


..PETERS.. 05/05/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...
40569477 41229473 41859471 41899243 40579242
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 050105
SPC MCD 050105
INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-050230-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0745
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0805 PM CDT SUN MAY 04 2003
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN IA/ERN MO/IL
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 235...

VALID 050105Z - 050230Z
PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL MO ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A TORNADO WATCH
IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

AIR MASS OVER EAST CENTRAL MO CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE AS THE WARM
FRONT MOVES NNEWD THROUGH CENTRAL/SERN MO WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING OVER THE SWRN PORTION OF WW 235. TORNADIC SUPERCELL OVER
CAMDEN COUNTY WILL MOVE ENEWD INTO PHELPS/MARIES COUNTIES MO TO
FRANKLIN/CRAWFORD COUNTIES MO BETWEEN 02-03Z.

REGIONAL RADARS SHOW ADDITIONAL STORMS OVER NERN MO AND FROM SERN MO
MOVING INTO SRN IL...WHILE OTHER STORMS HAVE MOVED ENEWD INTO ERN
IL/WRN IND DURING THE LAST 1 1/2 HOURS. EXCEPT FOR THE TORNADIC
POTENTIAL FOR EAST CENTRAL MO IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOUR...THE REST OF WW
235 SHOULD CONTINUE TO HAVE A LARGE HAIL THREAT WITH PRIMARILY
ELEVATED STORMS NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT.


..PETERS.. 05/05/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...
39959253 40689270 41619158 41788917 40298805 39398753
38478769 37398812 37258855 37259136
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 050205
SPC MCD 050205
MOZ000-KSZ000-050330-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0746
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0905 PM CDT SUN MAY 04 2003
AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN-NRN MO
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 238...

VALID 050205Z - 050330Z
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SWD ALONG A COLD FRONT MOVING
ESEWD THROUGH NWRN/WRN MO AND EAST CENTRAL KS.

01Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NWRN
MO INTO EAST CENTRAL KS WITH 6+ MB/3 HR SURFACE PRESSURE RISES IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT OVER NERN KS. AIR MASS REMAINS MODERATELY
UNSTABLE EAST OF THE COLD FRONT WITH DESTABILIZATION SPREADING EWD
INTO CENTRAL MO AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NEWD THROUGH CENTRAL TO SERN
MO. WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS ORIENTED NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
COLD FRONT...CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE INTO A SQUALL LINE
THIS EVENING FROM NWRN MO INTO EAST CENTRAL KS. HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY THREATS...THOUGH...ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE LINE OF STORMS...GIVEN THE DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY AND VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR.


..PETERS.. 05/05/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...
38889480 39569417 40579376 40549282 38229195 38209449
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 050226
SPC MCD 050226
KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-050430-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0747
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0926 PM CDT SUN MAY 04 2003
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO...NERN AR...NRN MS...WRN TN...WRN
KY...EXTREME SRN IL
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 239...

VALID 050226Z - 050430Z
THREAT FOR STRONG TORNADOES CONTINUES WITHIN WW 239...AND IS
ESPECIALLY HIGH FROM WRN TN INTO WRN KY.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS PRESSURE RISE/FALL COUPLET FROM SERN
MO INTO WRN KY/TN. THE FALLS ARE CENTERED FROM WRN TN INTO WRN
KY...WITH VALUES UP TO 2 MB IN THE LAST HOUR ALONE...INDICATIVE OF
NWD RETURN OF MOIST UNSTABLE AIR SOUTH OF RETREATING WARM FRONT.
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES UP TO
2500 J/KG.

PAH AND NQA VWPS SHOW TREMENDOUS LOW LEVEL HELICITY...WITH 0-3 KM
SRH VALUES OF 500-800 M2/S2. GIVEN HIGH LEVELS OF BOUNDARY LAYER RH
AND EXTREME SHEAR VALUES...ANY STORMS IN THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL HAVE
A HIGH PROBABILITY OF PRODUCING STRONG TORNADOES. HIGHEST THREAT
AREA IS OVER WRN TN AND KY...WHERE DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE
UPPER 60S F AND PRESSURES ARE FALLING THE FASTEST. THREAT COULD
EXTEND FURTHER N INTO SRN IL AND INDIANA LATER THIS EVENING AS WARM
FRONT RETREATS. A WW MAY BE REQUIRED N OF CURRENT WATCH BOX.

..JEWELL.. 05/05/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...LZK...
35748758 34708892 34338985 34339066 34469146 35419144
36669020 38188794 37258697
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 050242
SPC MCD 050242
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-050415-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0748
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0942 PM CDT SUN MAY 04 2003
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS/ERN OK/SWRN-SRN MO/NWRN-NRN AR
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 237...

VALID 050242Z - 050415Z
ISOLATED TORNADIC SUPERCELL...CURRENTLY OVER SWRN MO COUNTIES OF
DALLAS...LACLEDE AND CAMDEN WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EWD THROUGH THE
NERN PORTION OF WW 237. ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
LIKELY IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS OVER NWRN PORTIONS OF WW 237 IN SERN
KS/SWRN MO AND NERN OK AS THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SWD
ALONG A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THIS REGION FROM THE NW.
02Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NWRN MO SWWD
INTO EAST CENTRAL KS TO NWRN OK WITH A DRY LINE EXTENDING SSWWD FROM
NEAR CNU IN SERN KS TO SOUTH CENTRAL OK. MEANWHILE...A WARM FRONT
CONTINUES TO LIFT NNEWD THROUGH CENTRAL MO. THE WARM SECTOR REMAINS
MODERATELY UNSTABLE. STRONG DEEP AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IN THE
VICINITY OF THE TORNADIC SUPERCELL OVER SWRN MO AND LOW LCLS WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A TORNADO THREAT FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SWLY
DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN A
LINEAR MODE OF ORGANIZED STORMS. FURTHER SOUTH OVER ERN OK...DEEP
LAYER SHEAR VECTORS CROSS THE DRY LINE...FAVORING DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS WITH STORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP SWD OVER ERN OK IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS.


..PETERS.. 05/05/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...SHV...EAX...TSA...ICT...OUN...
38169490 38169056 34439163 34439584
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 050437
SPC MCD 050437
KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-050500-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0749
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1137 PM CDT SUN MAY 04 2003
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF MIDDLE TN/WRN KY/FAR SRN IND
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 050437Z - 050500Z
NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY FOR PORTIONS OF MIDDLE TN
INTO WRN KY AND FAR SRN IND.

OBJECTIVE/MESOANALYSES SHOW THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NEWD
THROUGH SRN IL AND WRN KY...WITH 00Z ETA/RUC MODELS SHOWING THIS
BOUNDARY LIFTING NWD THROUGH IL/IND THROUGH 09Z. WARM SECTOR
REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS STORMS SPREAD INTO
MIDDLE TN/WRN KY AND FAR SRN IND.


..PETERS.. 05/05/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...
38588710 38818539 38748466 36848482 35078565 35098794
37258709
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 050630
SPC MCD 050630
KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-050800-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0750
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0130 AM CDT MON MAY 05 2003
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO / SRN IL / SWRN IN / WRN KY...
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 240...

VALID 050630Z - 050800Z
SEVERE / TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF WW.
SEVERAL CLUSTERS / LINES OF STORMS CONTINUE TO AFFECT WW ATTM.
DEWPOINTS -- AND THUS SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY -- ARE INCREASING
ACROSS SRN IL...AND DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS. EXPECT THREAT TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
AHEAD OF MAIN PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE MOVING INTO SERN MO ATTM.

..GOSS.. 05/05/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...LSX...
38419107 38529046 38538702 37228666 37219069
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 050646
SPC MCD 050646
INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-050815-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0751
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0146 AM CDT MON MAY 05 2003
AREAS AFFECTED...E CENTRAL MO / CENTRAL IL...
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 241...

VALID 050646Z - 050815Z
SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF WW.

SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES AHEAD OF PRE-FRONTAL LINE OF STORMS MOVING
ACROSS SERN MO / W CENTRAL IL ATTM WHERE 500 TO 1500 J/KG ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD IS INDICATED.
THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AS STORMS MOVE EWD INTO MORE STABLE
AIRMASS OVER IND WHERE PRIOR CONVECTION OCCURRED. ALTHOUGH NEW WW
ACROSS IND IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM...WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
NWD ADVECTION OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...NOW AS FAR N AS EVV.

..GOSS.. 05/05/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...
39938958 40148744 40568556 40038499 38288618 38158955
38309066
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 050731
SPC MCD 050731
NCZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-050900-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0752
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0231 AM CDT MON MAY 05 2003
AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE AND ERN TN / CENTRAL KY...
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 242...

VALID 050731Z - 050900Z
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION -- INCLUDING A CLUSTER OF HP SUPERCELLS OVER
MIDDLE TN -- CONTINUES MOVING EWD ACROSS WW. GREATEST THREAT WILL
REMAIN ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF WW...ALTHOUGH NEW STORMS INCREASING
ACROSS WRN KY MAY EVENTUALLY POSE A TORNADO THREAT AS WELL.
WIDESPREAD RAIN / THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS NRN / ERN PORTIONS
OF WW...WITH MOST UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS MIDDLE TN ATTM TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION.

SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT MOIST / UNSTABLE AIR NWD INTO
MIDDLE TN STORMS...SUGGESTING SEVERE / TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE
GIVEN VERY STRONG / VEERING DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD.

FURTHER EAST...BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS MORE STABLE...AND IS NOT
EXPECTED TO DESTABILIZE SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY /500 TO 1000 J/KG
MOST-UNSTABLE CAPE/ TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL AND
PERHAPS LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE
HOUR EAST OF CURRENT WW.


..GOSS.. 05/05/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...
35508813 38418638 38378355 35158396
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 050841
SPC MCD 050841
INZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-050915-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0753
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0341 AM CDT MON MAY 05 2003
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MO / SRN IL / SWRN IND / PARTS OF WRN KY...
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 240...

VALID 050841Z - 050915Z
SEVERE THREAT HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 241
AND THIS WATCH WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 05/09Z.
HOWEVER...SEVERE / TORNADO THREAT WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS ACROSS TORNADO WATCH 240. NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL BE
ISSUED SHORTLY FOR THIS AREA.

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONGEST LINE OF STORMS MOVING EWD
ACROSS SERN PORTIONS OF WW 241 AND SHOULD VACATE THE WATCH WITHIN
THE HOUR. GREATER THREAT -- ASSOCIATED WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY -- APPEARS TO REMAIN ACROSS SERN MO / SRN
IL AND INTO SWRN IN / WRN MO. THEREFORE...WITH WW 240 SET TO EXPIRE
AT 05/09Z...NEW WW WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY ACROSS THIS REGION.

..GOSS.. 05/05/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...LSX...
37939102 38288938 38478773 38188661 36578757 36659069
37279108
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 050918
SPC MCD 050918
KYZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-051015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0754
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0418 AM CDT MON MAY 05 2003
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN AR / SERN MO / WRN AND MIDDLE TN / NRN MS /
NRN AL...
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 242...244...

VALID 050918Z - 051015Z
SEVERE / TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA.

OVERALL THREAT APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING ACCORDING TO LATEST RADAR
IMAGERY. HOWEVER...UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND
FIELD REMAINS OVER THIS REGION...SUGGESTING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL
WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALL THREE OF THESE WATCHES --
242...243...AND 244 -- WILL BE REPLACED BY 05/10Z WITH A NEW TORNADO
WATCH FROM NERN AR / SERN MO EWD INTO NRN MS / NRN AL / MIDDLE TN.
LITTLE OR NO NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED WEST OF ONGOING NERN
AR STORMS AS SHORT-WAVE RIDGING EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY AS FAR E AS
SERN OK WILL CONTINUE MOVING EWD INTO AR.


..GOSS.. 05/05/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...
36579153 36879052 37228791 37368543 35468564 34618798
34249123 34919220
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 051107
SPC MCD 051107
GAZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-051230-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0755
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0607 AM CDT MON MAY 05 2003
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TN / EXTREME SWRN NC / NERN AL / NRN GA...
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 245...

VALID 051107Z - 051230Z
SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE LIMITED ACROSS ALL BUT FAR SRN PORTIONS
OF WW. SEVERE THREAT MAY ALSO EXTEND SWD INTO NERN AL / NRN GA
SOUTH OF CURRENT WATCH. A NEW WW WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY FOR PARTS
OF N GA.

LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS WIDESPREAD RAIN / THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
WW...WITH MOST INTENSE STORMS ALONG THE TN / AL AND TN / GA BORDERS
ATTM. WEAK NW-SE SURFACE BOUNDARY / WARM FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM
MIDDLE TN SEWD ALONG THE GA / AL BORDER -- SEPARATING GULF AIRMASS
FROM AIR ORIGINATING FROM WITHIN COLD-AIR DAM EAST OF APPALACHIANS.
ALTHOUGH SHALLOW / STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER EXISTS E OF SURFACE
BOUNDARY...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED NNEWD INTO THIS
REGION ON SSWLY WINDS. AS A RESULT...SUFFICIENT ELEVATED
INSTABILITY EXISTS TO ALLOW STORMS TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS NERN AL / NRN
GA.

WITH SURFACE WINDS SOUTH OF EAST TO THE E OF SURFACE BOUNDARY...
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SUGGESTS A LIMITED TORNADO THREAT IN A NARROW ZONE
NEAR AND JUST E OF SURFACE BOUNDARY WHERE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER IS
MOST SHALLOW. HOWEVER...MAIN THREAT ACROSS THIS REGION SHOULD BE
HAIL AND PERHAPS A LOCALLY DAMAGING GUST AS STORMS MOVE SEWD INTO
PROGRESSIVELY-DEEP / STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER.


..GOSS.. 05/05/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...
36598510 36418426 34658352 33828483 34308639
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 051132
SPC MCD 051132
KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-051300-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0756
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0632 AM CDT MON MAY 05 2003
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO / SRN IL / SWRN IN / WRN KY...
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 246...

VALID 051132Z - 051300Z
SEVERE / TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS WW AREA AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

MARGINALLY-UNSTABLE /500 TO 1000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE/ AIRMASS
REMAINS ACROSS WW AREA AHEAD OF COLD FRONT -- WHOSE LOCATION ROUGHLY
CORRESPONDS WITH LINE OF STORMS NOW MOVING ACROSS NWRN PORTIONS OF
WW. STRONG / WEAKLY-VEERING WIND FIELD IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE
REGION...WHICH SUGGESTS A CONTINUED SEVERE THREAT GIVEN AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...STORMS REMAIN LIMITED IN INTENSITY ACCORDING
TO RADAR IMAGERY OVER THE LAST 1 TO 2 HOURS. GREATEST THREAT
REMAINS NEAR AND SOUTH OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NOW LYING FROM ROUGHLY 45
NW HOP TO 30 ENE POF...ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS WHICH HAVE NOW MOVED
TO THE IND / KY BORDER.


..GOSS.. 05/05/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...LSX...
37459081 38368911 38318693 36538716 36529087
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 051211
SPC MCD 051211
TNZ000-ALZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-051415-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0757
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0711 AM CDT MON MAY 05 2003
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN AR / WRN AND MIDDLE TN / NRN MS / NRN AL...
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 247...

VALID 051211Z - 051415Z
SEVERE / TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS WW.

LOW-LEVEL SLY FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT WARM / MOIST AIRMASS NWD INTO
THE REGION BENEATH STRONG WSWLY FLOW ALOFT. THUS...ENVIRONMENT
REMAINS THERMODYNAMICALLY AND KINEMATICALLY FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREAT.
SEVERAL SUPERCELLS -- NOW MOVING INTO SWRN TN AND ALSO ACROSS SRN
MIDDLE TN -- ARE OBSERVED ATTM...WITH ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR LARGE
HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO.
EXPECT THIS THREAT TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS FAVORABLE
LARGE-SCALE CONDITIONS PERSIST.


..GOSS.. 05/05/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MRX...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...LZK...
34749166 35939012 36528837 36568552 35278543 34318632
NNNN