MKC MCD 141750 COR MN AREA TO MN ARROWHEAD...6TH LINE
MNZ000-WIZ000-142000-

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION #1644 FOR E CNTRL MN/NW WI
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...

WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FOR POSSIBILITY
OF WW.

PRIMARY SURFACE WARM FRONT IS NOW DEVELOPING FROM JUST NORTH OF
ABERDEEN SD...EAST SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH ALEXANDRIA AND ST. CLOUD
AREAS OF CENTRAL MINNESOTA...INTO THE VICINITY OF LA CROSSE WI.
INTENSE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ONGOING THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS NORTH OF WARM FRONT...ENHANCED BY LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WHICH IS NOW MIGRATING ACROSS THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD. HOWEVER...
WITH MORE VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE STILL UPSTREAM...FROM NEAR THE
MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...MUCH OF
THE NORTHERN HALF OF MINNESOTA REMAINS BENEATH STRONGLY DIFLUENT
AND DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW REGIME. THIS MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...IN
WARM ADVECTION REGIME ALONG/NORTH OF WARM FRONT. DRY MID-LEVEL AIR
MASS WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES ON NORTHERN EDGE OF STRENGTHENING CAP
WILL MAINTAIN THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL LARGE HAIL...IN ADDITION TO
DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS...IN STRONGEST CELLS.

..KERR.. 08/14/00

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/ FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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ZCZC MKCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS3 KMKC 142037
MKC MCD 142037
MNZ000-WIZ000-142300-

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION #1647 FOR CNTRL/NE MN...NW WI
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...REF WW 685

WE ARE MONITORING PARTS OF CENTRAL MINNESOTA FOR ADDITIONAL WW...
WITH THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES INCREASING NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS.

STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MINNESOTA...JUST TO THE NORTH OF WARM FRONT
AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. AT 20Z...WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM 1004 MB
SURFACE LOW WEST OF FERGUS FALLS INTO AREAS NEAR/NORTH OF ST.
CLOUD...MINNEAPOLIS AND LA CROSSE...WITH STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT
ACROSS BOUNDARY ENHANCED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW FROM ONGOING
ACTIVITY.

AS UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES ACROSS MANITOBA/NORTH
DAKOTA DURING THE NEXT 3 TO 6 HOURS...SURFACE LOW WILL MIGRATE
EASTWARD ALONG BOUNDARY TOWARD THE BRAINERD MN AREA. LATEST
VISIBLE IMAGERY ALREADY INDICATES DEEPENING CONVECTION EAST OF
SURFACE LOW...AND INCREASING LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION AND CONVERGENCE JUST AHEAD OF LOW CENTER...BENEATH
STRONGLY DIFLUENT AND DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD...IS EXPECTED TO
BREAK CAP BY 15/00Z. GIVEN INSTABILITY EVIDENT IN 18Z MINNEAPOLIS
RAOB...STRENGTHENING VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS CENTRAL
MINNESOTA NEXT FEW HOURS WILL SUPPORT RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF
SUPERCELLS...WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES LIKELY...IN ADDITION TO LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.


..KERR.. 08/14/00

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/ FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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ZCZC MKCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS3 KMKC 142158
MKC MCD 142158
NEZ000-SDZ000-150100-

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION #1648 FOR CNTRL AND NERN NE THROUGH SERN
SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...
ISOLATED STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF INCREASING
DEVELOPMENT BETTER ORGANIZATION.

STORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN N CNTRL NE ALONG CONVERGENT TROUGH AXIS
THAT EXTENDS FROM ERN SD SWWD THROUGH CNTRL NE. TEMPERATURES HAVE
WARMED TO NEAR 100 ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE WITH WELL MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYERS AND DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE LOWER 60S. THIS IS SUPPORTING
DCAPES FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. ATMOSPHERE IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE IN
THIS REGION...AND GIVEN AMOUNT OF DCAPE AND INVERTED V
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...ISOLATED STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS THEY DEVELOP
EWD.

DUE TO EXPECTED ISOLATED NATURE OF EVENT...WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME. HOWEVER...VWP DATA SHOWS VEERING BOUNDARY LAYER WIND
PROFILES WITH WEAK SHEAR AND FLOW UP TO 25 KT ABOVE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WHICH IS SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE FOR STORMS TO ORGANIZE INTO
LINES. HOWEVER...TIME OF DAY SUGGESTS ACTIVITY MAY NOT HAVE TIME TO
ORGANIZE BEFORE DIABATIC HEATING BEGINS TO UNDERGO A SIGNIFICANT
DECREASE. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
INCREASING DEVELOPMENT AND ORGANIZATION.


..DIAL.. 08/14/00

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/ FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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ZCZC MKCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS3 KMKC 150022
MKC MCD 150022
WIZ000-MIZ000-150200-

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION #1649 FOR NERN WI THROUGH THE EXTREME SRN
PORTIONS OF THE UP OF MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL...
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING EWD INTO NERN WI AND SRN
PORTIONS OF UPPER MI. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED BY
01Z.

STORMS CONTINUE MOVING EWD AROUND 35 KT THROUGH PORTIONS OF CNTRL
MN AND NWRN WI ALONG AND N OF WARM FRONT THAT HAS BEEN REINFORCED
BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW. WITH LOW LEVEL JET FORECAST TO VEER AND
STRENGTHEN WITH TIME...STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE DEVELOPING EWD INTO
NERN WI ALONG AND N OF WARM FRONT.

NEAR SURFACE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS REMAINED RELATIVELY COOL AND
STABLE. HOWEVER...DESTABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH THETA-E ADVECTION
ABOVE THE SURFACE SHOULD SUPPORT MODERATE MUCAPE OVER NERN WI.
VERTICAL WIND PROFILES WITH MODERATELY STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW AND
PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SPREADING EWD WILL SUPPORT
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND ASSOCIATED WITH BOW ECHO STRUCTURES.
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED ABOVE SURFACE LAYER WHERE
STRONGER DIRECTIONAL SHEAR EXISTS...HOWEVER DEEP LAYER SHEAR
BETWEEN 3 AND 6 KM IS SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT MID LEVEL ROTATION
WHICH WILL MAY ALSO ENHANCE LARGE HAIL THREAT.

GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING CELLS AND HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...RAINFALL RATES EXCEEDING 2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.


..DIAL.. 08/15/00

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/ FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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ZCZC MKCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS3 KMKC 150046
MKC MCD 150046
MNZ000-WIZ000-150300-

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION #1650 FOR CNTRL MN THROUGH NWRN WI
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL...REF WW

686...
STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG AND N OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CNTRL MN THROUGH NWRN WI. ATTEMPTS AT DEEP CONVECTION
EXISTED ALONG PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING N-S FROM W CNTRL MN SWWD
THROUGH SWRN MN. HOWEVER...MSP SOUNDING DATA SHOWS ATMOSPHERE TO BE
STRONGLY CAPPED IN WARM SECTOR E OF THIS FEATURE AND STORMS HAVE
FAILED TO DEVELOP. INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. NEW CELLS DEVELOPING ON
SRN FLANK OF OUTFLOW WILL HAVE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TO PRODUCE
TORNADOES AS THEY CROSS THE BOUNDARY BEFORE BECOMING ELEVATED AS
THEY MOVE DEEPER INTO THE COOLER SURFACE AIR.

ORGANIZED BOW ECHO WITH ROTATING COMMA HEAD MOVING EWD AROUND 35 KT
THROUGH ONEIDA AND VILAS COUNTIES WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A HIGH
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND NEXT HOUR OR TWO. RAINFALL RATES
EXCEEDING 2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE ALSO POSSIBLE DUE TO TRAINING CELLS
N OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW.


..DIAL.. 08/15/00

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/ FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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ZCZC MKCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS3 KMKC 150315
MKC MCD 150315
WIZ000-MIZ000-150500-

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION #1651 FOR NERN AND CNTRL WI
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL...REF

WW 687...
WEAKENING BOW ECHO CONTINUES MOVING EWD AROUND 35 KT THROUGH NERN
WI AND EXTREME SRN PORTION OF UPPER MI. HOWEVER STRONGER STORMS
CONTINUE DEVELOPING ON SRN FLANK OF OUTFLOW WHERE 40 KT SWLY LOW
LEVEL JET IS MAINTAINING MOIST INFLOW. DAMAGING WIND REPORTS HAVE
DECREASED DURING THE LAST HOUR AND STORMS APPEAR SOMEWHAT ELEVATED
ABOVE RELATIVELY COOL SURFACE LAYER. HOWEVER STORMS ON SRN FLANK OF
OUTFLOW ARE CLOSER TO BEING SURFACE BASED AND POSE THE GREATEST
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH RATES LOCALLY EXCEEDING 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL
CONTINUE WITH CELLS TRAINING ESEWD SLIGHTLY N OF OUTFLOW THROUGH
NRN WI. THIS LINE SHOULD GRADUALLY SAG SWD INTO CNTRL WI AS COLD
POOL BECOMES ESTABLISHED.


..DIAL.. 08/15/00

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/ FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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ZCZC MKCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS3 KMKC 150616
MKC MCD 150616
WIZ000-150800-

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION #1652 FOR CENTRAL WI
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...REF WW 688...

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL THIRD OF WI...ALTHOUGH A SLOW WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED
THROUGH 15/08Z.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS ZONE OF CONVERGENCE PERSISTING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL THIRD OF WI...WITH A WARM MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE JUST
SOUTH OF REGION. LATEST ARX AND MRX VWPS CONTINUE TO SHOW LOW-
LEVEL FLOW VEERING WITH TIME TO A MORE WLY DIRECTION...BUT DEEP-
LAYER SHEAR REMAINS MARGINALLY STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED
CONVECTION GIVEN MODERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY.

AS WEAKENING BOW ECHO MOVES SEWD OUT OF WATCH INTO LAKE MI...
STRONGEST STORMS REMAIN N OF LSE WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
APPEARS TO BE MAXIMIZED. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH WITH TIME. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND
WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT BETWEEN NOW AND
15/08Z.


..GOSS.. 08/15/00

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/ FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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