SPC MCD 171546
OHZ000-INZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-171900-

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0394 FOR SE IN/WRN OH/WRN...CNTRL KY/TN
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...

CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED.

WHILE VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...TRAILING MID-LEVEL WIND SHIFT/LOBE
OF CYCLONIC VORTICITY EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD TO ANOTHER MID-LEVEL
CYCLONIC VORTICITY CENTER OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS. THESE FEATURES
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ASSOCIATED WEAK FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
ENHANCING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS.
BANDS OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ARE ALREADY UNDERWAY IN THE
VICINITY OF VORT LOBE AND VORT MAXIMUM. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS
LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY...AND BECOMING INCREASINGLY
BASED IN BOUNDARY LAYER AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM FROM THE UPPER
70S INTO THE MID 80S DURING THE NEXT 3 TO 4 HOURS. THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CAPE AOA 2000 J/KG
WILL SUPPORT VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS...WHILE DOWNDRAFTS WILL BECOME
ENHANCED BY DRY LAYER EVIDENT IN REGIONAL MORNING RAOBS ABOVE 850
MB. THUS...THREAT LARGE HAIL/GUSTY WINDS IN ISOLATED STRONGER
STORMS LIKELY WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER

...GIVEN RELATIVE WEAKNESS OF WIND FIELDS/VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES
ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...IT DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY THAT
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE ABLE TO ORGANIZE SUFFICIENTLY TO POSE
WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT.


..KERR.. 04/17/02

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/ FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 171554
SPC MCD 171554
MTZ000-172100-

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0395 FOR SOUTHWEST MONTANA
CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW...

COMBINATION OF INCREASING UVV/S AHEAD OF APPROACHING VORT MAX AND
CONVECTIVE NATURE OF ENSUING SNOWFALL WILL ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES
ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON. HOURLY RATES
APPROACHING 2" PER HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS.
MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY DEPICTS VORT MAX APPROACHING SWRN
MT ATTM...CENTERED NEAR 44.5N/114W AT 15Z. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT
IN LIFTING THIS FEATURE NEWD ACROSS SWRN MT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
ENHANCED LARGE SCALE ASCENT ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THIS TRACK.
THERMAL/MOISTURE PROFILE REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHILE
VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES ON THIS MORNING/S SOUNDINGS WILL SUPPORT
DEEP CONVECTIVE PLUMES. THIS WILL AID IN HEAVY SNOW PRODUCTION FOR
SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THIS REGION.


..EVANS.. 04/17/02

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/ FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 171616
SPC MCD 171616
UTZ000-WYZ000-172100-

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0396 FOR NRN UT INTO FAR SWRN WY
CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW...

FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS THIS
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH RATES OVER AN INCH PER HOUR IN THE
HEAVIER BANDS.

LATEST SURFACE/MESONET DATA OVER NRN UT INTO SWRN WY INDICATES
SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS FROM JUST SOUTH OF THE GREAT SALT LAKE EWD TO
JUST SOUTH OF DOWNTOWN SLC AND THEN NEWD INTO SWRN WY NEAR EVW AND
BPI. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY SHIFT SLOWLY SSEWD THROUGH THE DAY.
MDT TO HEAVY SNOW IS ALREADY OCCURING JUST BEHIND THIS FRONT IN
PARTS OF THE SALT LAKE VALLEY...WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION
POSSIBLE INTO THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON. MORNING ETA MAINTAINS
FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 800 TO 700 MB LAYER ACROSS NRN UT...WHICH IT
EXTENDS INTO FAR SWRN WY BY 21Z. THIS MAY SPREAD MDT TO HEAVY SNOW
INTO FAR SWRN WY LATER TODAY. IN ADDITION...VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES
AND DEEP MOIST LAYER EVIDENT ON BOI/S MORNING SOUNDING SHOULD
SUPPORT ENHANCED SNOWFALL RATES AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDER WITH
THIS ACTIVITY. RATES SHOULD EXCEED AN INCH PER HOUR IN THE
HEAVIEST SNOW BANDS.


..EVANS.. 04/17/02

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/ FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 171706
SPC MCD 171706
VTZ000-NHZ000-MEZ000-171900-

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0397 FOR NRN VT/NRN NH/WRN ME
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...

CONVECTIVE TRENDS CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF WW.
SHARP LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE...ENHANCED BY EARLIER CONVECTIVE
CLUSTER...CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NEAR PORTLAND ME THROUGH EXTREME
NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND VERMONT...AND CONTINUES TO SERVE AS
FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY LOW-LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION REGIME DOWN STREAM OF MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDGE
AXIS...WHICH WILL SHIFT FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO CENTRAL
QUEBEC AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY BY 18/00Z. MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY
MID/UPPER FLOW ON EAST SIDE OF RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE
SHEAR AND PROPAGATION OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FROM SOUTHERN QUEBEC
SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG FRONTAL ZONE INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MAINE
THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN CONTINUED HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION OF
MOIST AIR MASS ALONG/WEST OF FRONT...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL/
GUSTY WINDS IN ENVIRONMENT WITH CAPE OF 2000 J/KG.


..KERR.. 04/17/02

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/ FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 171749
SPC MCD 171749
TXZ000-OKZ000-172000-

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0398 FOR TX PNHDL/WRN OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...

TRENDS ARE BEING CLOSELY MONITORED FOR INCREASING/INTENSIFYING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WHICH WILL LIKELY REQUIRE A WW.
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY BEING APPROACHED VICINITY OF
DRY LINE...NEAR CHILDRESS TX...WHERE DEEPENING CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE
EVIDENT IN LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY. THIS IS OCCURRING BENEATH ZONE
OF INCREASINGLY DIFLUENT UPPER FLOW ON SOUTHERN FRINGE OF JET WHICH
CURVES ANTICYCLONICALLY FROM THE NORTHERN MEXICAN PLATEAU AND
SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. MODELS
SUGGEST STRENGTHENING UPPER DIVERGENCE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS

...WHICH WILL ENHANCE THREAT FOR GROWING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER NEAR
THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA/TEXAS BORDER. GIVEN STRONG INSTABILITY WITH
VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTRIBUTING TO CAPE UP TO 4000
J/KG...LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP. VEERING PROFILES WITH HEIGHT BENEATH 30 KT SOUTHERLY LOW-
LEVEL JET AND MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...POSSIBLY WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES.

..KERR.. 04/17/02

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/ FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 171934
SPC MCD 171934
MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-172200-

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0399 FOR VT/NH/WRN ME
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 104

CLUSTER OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS NORTHWEST OF PORTLAND ME WILL
CONTINUE SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY INTO COASTAL AREAS OF
SOUTHERN MAINE DURING THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. SCATTERED CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP UPSTREAM...BUT AS MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDGE
CONTINUES INTO CENTRAL QUEBEC AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY BY EARLY
EVENING...WARM MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER NEAR/WEST OF FRONT MAY BECOME
INCREASINGLY CAPPED.


..KERR.. 04/17/02

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/ FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 172014
SPC MCD 172014
NYZ000-172300-

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0400 FOR UPSTATE NY
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...

TRENDS IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY APPROACHING UPSTATE NEW YORK THIS
EVENING WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF HAIL/GUSTY WINDS.
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS GRADUALLY EVOLVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ONTARIO...SUPPORTED BY UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELD ON TAIL END OF
SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW LIFTING ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE EASTERN LAKES
REGION. AS UPPER SYSTEM PROGRESSES INTO WESTERN QUEBEC EARLY THIS
EVENING...AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK NOSES EASTWARD FROM SOUTHEAST
ONTARIO...CONVECTION WILL PROGRESS INTO AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF
WATERTOWN NY AFTER 18/00Z. WHILE MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG MAY SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION NEXT
FEW HOURS IN 30 KT MEAN FLOW REGIME...STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF LAKE
ONTARIO/LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AFTER SUNSET ARE INHIBITING FACTORS
TO MAINTAIN SEVERE THREAT INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK THIS EVENING.

..KERR.. 04/17/02

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/ FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 172139
SPC MCD 172139
OKZ000-KSZ000-172230-

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0401 FOR NWRN OK INTO SWRN KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...

A WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED SHORTLY FOR NWRN OK INTO SWRN KS.
HIGH BASED CUMULUS FIELD ACROSS THE ERN PANHANDLE OF TX INTO NWRN
CONTINUES TO EXPAND WITH A FEW CBS NOW NOTED OVER ELLIS COUNTY OK.
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS STRONGEST ACROSS THIS AREA WHERE THE DRY
LINE IS ACTUALLY RETREATING NWWD. TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AND RIDE NWD INTO SWRN KS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
KINEMATICS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. AN ISOLD TORNADO IS POSSIBLE IF CELLS CAN
REMAIN DISCREET AND MOVE EWD INTO MOIST AXIS.


..RACY.. 04/17/02

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/ FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 172207
SPC MCD 172207
OKZ000-TXZ000-180000-

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0402 FOR SWRN OK...SERN TX PANHANDLE AND
NWRN TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...

TSTMS COULD INITIATE IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS FROM ALONG THE OK/TX
BORDER NE OF CDS SWD INTO NWRN TX. GIVEN DEVELOPMENT...LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND AN ISOLD TORNADO ARE POSSIBLE AND A WW
MAY BE REQUIRED.

VSBL SATELLITE SHOWS TCU DEVELOPING ALONG STRONGEST MOISTURE
GRADIENT FROM 45 W CSM-CDS-55 NW ABI. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DURING
THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS HAS SHOWN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS CORRIDOR AND GIVEN TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S
AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S...CINH IS PROBABLY DECREASED
SUFFICIENTLY FOR TSTM INITIATION GIVEN ENOUGH SURFACE CONVERGENCE.
THERE APPEARS TO BE A SPEED MAX MOVING OUT OF ERN NM AND SWRN TX
THAT MAY ENHANCE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS...WHICH WOULD BE CONDUCIVE TO INCREASED LOWER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE.

DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE TO AROUND 40 KTS...ENOUGH FOR
SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT. HOWEVER...MORE DISCRETE CELLS THAT CAN BECOME ESTABLISHED
IN THE RICHER MOISTURE LOCATED OVER NWRN TX/SWRN OK COULD PRODUCE
AN ISOLD TORNADO OR TWO WHERE LOW-LEVEL WINDS HAVE A TENDENCY TO
BACK WITH TIME.


..RACY.. 04/17/02

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/ FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 172242
SPC MCD 172242
NYZ000-180100-

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0403 FOR NRN NY
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...

A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE
MOVING EWD AT 35-40KT INTO JEFFERSON AND ST. LAWRENCE COUNTIES IN
NRN NY AROUND 18/0030Z. INTENSITY OF SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE
THIS EVENING...AND LEAD TO JUST ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AS
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS NRN NY THIS EVENING.

AT 2230Z...UPSTATE NY RADAR INDICATES A WEAKENING BOW ECHO 70 WNW
ART SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED IN FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY TO WLY FLOW
OF 30-40KT FROM THE SFC-6KM AGL...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR
FORWARD PROPAGATION. INTENSITY OF SYSTEM WHEN IT CROSSES INTO NY
WILL LIKELY BE WEAKER...INFLUENCED BY COOL LAKE MODIFIED AIR
DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO AND DIURNAL COOLING. GUSTY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED AS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS NRN NY THIS EVENING...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED GUSTS NEAR SEVERE LEVELS POSSIBLE OVER NRN NY BEFORE
SYSTEM DISSIPATES.


..BANACOS.. 04/17/02

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/ FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 172318
SPC MCD 172318
KSZ000-180100-

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0404 FOR CNTRL/NCNTRL KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...

TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO MOVE/DEVELOP NWD FROM WW 105 INTO CNTRL/NCNTRL
KS...AND AN ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE NEEDED FOR CENTRAL/N CENTRAL KS BY
ABOUT 00Z.

SUPERCELLS OVER SWRN KS CONTINUE TO SPLIT WITH THE LEFT MOVERS
RACING NEWD AT NEARLY 50 KTS. DRY LINE APPEARS TO BE SITUATED FROM
MITCHELL-BARTON-EDWARDS COUNTY AND IS RETREATING NWD...ESPECIALLY
JUST OFF THE SURFACE. THIS MAY SUPPORT/MAINTAIN TSTMS NEWD INTO
CNTRL/NCNTRL KS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BETTER LOW LEVEL SHEAR
EXISTS FARTHER N INVOF WARM FRONT OVER SRN NEB-NWRN MO. RICHER
MOISTURE IS CONFINED TO AREAS S ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER...AND HIGH
LCL HEIGHTS SUGGEST THAT LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING TSTMS WINDS WILL BE
THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS.


..RACY.. 04/17/02

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/ FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 180025
SPC MCD 180025
NEZ000-IAZ000-180200-

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0405 FOR ERN NEB AND IA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...

ISOLD ELEVATED TSTMS WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE NUMEROUS DURING THE
NEXT FEW HOURS FROM ERN NEB INTO IA. A FEW OF THE TSTMS MAY
CONTAIN LARGE HAIL. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR A POSSIBLE WW.
SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE OMA AREA
INTO SRN IA. A FEW ELEVATED TSTMS HAVE EVOLVED WITHIN ACCAS FIELD
JUST NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT NEAR FET WITHIN A REGION OF INCREASING
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION. SWLY LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
DURING THE EVENING AND SHOULD SUPPORT AN EXPANDING AREA OF TSTMS
ACROSS ERN NEB INTO IA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 55 KTS ON THE 00 UTC
OAX SOUNDING IS MORE THAN CONDUCIVE FOR ORGANIZED ROTATING
UPDRAFTS. HOWEVER...CURRENTLY MUCAPES LESS THAN 1000 J/KG SUGGEST
THAT UPDRAFTS WILL STRUGGLE TO BE SUSTAINED AND THE SEVERE THREAT
WILL BE LIMITED TO ISOLD LARGE HAIL DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
HOWEVER...00 UTC TOP SOUNDING SHOWS MUCAPES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG.
CONTINUED WARM/MOIST ADVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE DESTABILIZING
THE AIR MASS INTO ERN NEB AND IA OVERNIGHT. THUS...AN INCREASING
THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL COULD OCCUR LATER THIS EVENING.

..RACY.. 04/18/02

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/ FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 180041
SPC MCD 180041
OKZ000-KSZ000-180300-

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0406 FOR NWRN OK INTO SWRN/SCNTRL KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 105...

NUMEROUS TSTMS...A FEW OF WHICH ARE SUPERCELLS...CONTINUE TO MOVE
NEWD ACROSS SWRN/SCNTRL KS. SUSTAINED LEFT MEMBER SPLITS ARE
CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARD SALINA KS. THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE PRODUCING LARGE HAIL FOR AT LEAST 2-3 MORE HOURS. THE
STORMS ARE LIKELY TO WEAKEN AND CONGEAL INTO A LOOSELY ORGANIZED
MCS AND MOVE ACROSS CNTRL KS LATER THIS EVENING WITHIN INCREASING
WARM ADVECTION REGIME WITH HAIL/ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS.
FARTHER S...A FEW SUPERCELLS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE DRY
LINE IN NWRN OK. THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO MOVE NEWD INTO
SERN PORTIONS OF WW 105 DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. VICI
PROFILER SHOWS DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF OVER 50 KTS AND GIVEN MAGNITUDE
OF INSTABILITY...LARGE HAIL WILL BE QUITE LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS.

..RACY.. 04/18/02

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/ FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 180106
SPC MCD 180106
TXZ000-OKZ000-180300-

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0407 FOR ERN TX PANHANDLE...NWRN TX AND
WRN OK
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 106...

SEVERAL SUPERCELLS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE DRY LINE FROM 40 SE GAG
TO ALONG THE OK/TX BORDER 45 W CSM. OTHER SUPERCELLS ARE MOVING
NWD ACROSS NWRN TX SOUTH OF CDS AND ACROSS THE ERN TX PANHANDLE
MIDWAY BETWEEN AMA-CDS.


MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS SIGNIFICANT BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS
SWRN/WCNTRL OK AND MODIFYING THE VICI PROFILER/VANCE AFB VWP FOR
CURRENT SURFACE WINDS RESULTS IN 0-3 KM SRH OF 200-250 M2/S2. THE
SUPERCELLS ALONG THE TX/OK BORDER APPEAR TO BE INGESTING AIR
PARCELS WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER CHARACTERIZED BY MEAN MIXED CAPE
VALUES OF 3500 J/KG. GIVEN MID-UPPER 60S DEW POINTS...LCL HEIGHTS
ARE LOW. RICH MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND LARGE LOOPING HODOGRAPHS
SUGGEST THAT THE TORNADO POTENTIAL REMAINS ALONG WITH THE THREAT
FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND AN ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUST DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS.

ACTIVITY COULD CONGEAL INTO ONE OR MORE LOOSELY ORGANIZED MCS/S AND
MOVE ENEWD ACROSS NRN AND PORTIONS OF CNTRL OK LATER THIS EVENING
WITH HAIL/ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.


..RACY.. 04/18/02
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 180434
SPC MCD 180434
SDZ000-MNZ000-WIZ000-180900-

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0408 FOR ERN SD...CNTRL MN INTO
NWRN/WCNTRL WI
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...

TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND
MAY POSE AN ISOLD...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THREAT. A WW IS NOT
ANTICIPATED ATTM.

SATELLITE AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE INCREASING ACCAS FIELD
FROM NCNTRL SD INTO WCNTRL MN IN A REGION OF STRONG WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION. PLAN VIEW PROFILERS/VWPS SHOW THE NOSE OF A 55-60 KT
SLY LOW LEVEL JET IMPINGING A BAROCLINIC ZONE SITUATED FROM SERN SD
INTO NRN IA. AIR MASS ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS BEING FED BY
PARCELS ORIGINATING FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS AND CONTINUED
DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT
SHOULD ENCOURAGE BANDS OF TSTM TO DEVELOP INTO EARLY THU MORNING.
KINEMATIC PROFILES WITHIN THE CLOUD LAYER SUGGEST A FEW
STRONGER...ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS MAY OCCUR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLD MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

PRIND THAT TSTMS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SHORTLY OVER NERN SD/SERN
ND AND WCNTRL MN...WITH OTHER BANDS OF TSTMS FORMING FROM CNTRL MN
INTO NWRN/WCNTRL WI AFTER 06 UTC.


..RACY.. 04/18/02

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/ FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 180606
SPC MCD 180606
KSZ000-180800-

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0409 FOR SRN KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...

TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR S CNTRL KS BEFORE 07Z.
TORNADIC SUPERCELL OVER N CNTRL OK IN ALFALFA COUNTY IS MOVING NEWD
AT AROUND 27 KT. IF STORM HOLDS TOGETHER IT WILL CROSS INTO SRN KS
AT AROUND 07Z. THIS STORM IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH INSTABILITY
AXIS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S AND MLCAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG.
DESPITE STRENGTHENING CAP...UPDRAFT HAS REMAINED STRONG ENOUGH TO
LIFT PARCELS TO THEIR LFC...AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY APPEARS
PRESENT DOWNSTREAM TO MAINTAIN STORM AT LEAST INTO EXTREME SRN KS.
LARGE HODOGRAPHS SUPPORTED BY 60 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN
SUFFICIENT FOR TORNADOES. HOWEVER...STORM MAY BEGIN TO DECREASE IN
INTENSITY AFTER ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE E OF
PRIMARY INSTABILITY AXIS AND ENCOUNTERS STRONGER CAP.
NEVERTHELESS...UNTIL STORM BEGINS TO SHOW SIGNS OF DECREASING...A
WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR A SMALL PART OF SRN KS.

..DIAL.. 04/18/02

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/ FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 180745
SPC MCD 180745
IAZ000-MNZ000-WIZ000-180900-

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0410 FOR NRN IA...CNTRL/SRN MN AND WRN WI
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 108...

LARGE HAIL REMAINS LIKELY WITH NUMEROUS STORMS DEVELOPING FROM NRN
IA THROUGH CNTRL MN AND WRN WI. OTHER STORMS ARE DEVELOPING N AND
E OF WW 108 INTO PORTIONS OF NRN MN AND CNTRL WI. THE STRONGER
STORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN WW 108 DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS.
HOWEVER...STRONG STORMS MAY BEGIN TO DEVELOP NE OF WW 108 BY 09Z
AND ANOTHER WW MIGHT BE REQUIRED FARTHER NE WITHIN ANOTHER COUPLE
HOURS.

ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG STRONG SLY 60-70 KT LOW LEVEL JET IS
CONTRIBUTING TO NUMEROUS ELEVATED STORMS OVER MUCH OF SRN/CNTRL MN
AND WRN WI N OF WARM FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM NRN IL WWD THROUGH
NERN NEB. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LOW LEVEL THETA-E
ADVECTION ALONG THE LOW LEVEL JET AXIS HAS RESULTED IN CONSIDERABLE
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPES AROUND 2500 J/KG. STORMS ON THE
SRN EDGE OF THE MCS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN THE STRONGEST SINCE THEY
ARE BETTER EXPOSED TO THE INFLOW FROM UNSTABLE AIR TO THE SW. AS
LOW LEVEL JET VEERS LATER THIS MORNING...ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BEGIN TO
DESTABILIZE NEWD WITH TIME...SUGGESTING THE LARGE HAIL THREAT MAY
INCREASE FARTHER NE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN/CNTRL WI...WRN UPPER MI
AND POSSIBLY NERN MN.


..DIAL.. 04/18/02

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/ FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 180820
SPC MCD 180820
KSZ000-180900-

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0411 FOR SRN AND CNTRL KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 109...

ISOLATED STORMS OVER S CNTRL KS CONTINUE TO UNDERGO AN OVERALL
DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.

STORMS HAVE WEAKENED OVER S CNTRL KS AS THEY BEGIN TO MOVE E OF
INSTABILITY AXIS AND ARE LIKELY ENCOUNTERING STRONGER CAP. THIS
ALONG WITH APPARENT LACK OF A LOW LEVEL FOCUS SUGGESTS ACTIVITY
WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO DECREASE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.
HOWEVER...WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN SRN STREAM AND STRONG
SSWLY LOW LEVEL JET MAY SUPPORT ELEVATED CONVECTION PERSISTING
THROUGH CNTRL KS AND EVENTUALLY SPREADING INTO ERN KS LATER THIS
MORNING.


..DIAL.. 04/18/02

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/ FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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